NHK Exit Poll: LDP Faces Difficulty Securing Solo Majority in Japan General Election

Right After Voting Ends at 8 PM
Ruling Coalition of Jimin and Komeito Also in Jeopardy
Possibility of Growing Responsibility Debate on Ishiba

In the Japanese House of Representatives election held on the 27th, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is expected to fail to maintain its current outright majority seats.

According to the exit poll announced by NHK immediately after the polls closed at 8 p.m. that day, the LDP is projected to secure only 153 to 219 seats, a significant decrease from the current 247 seats. This result falls far short of the majority threshold of 233 seats (out of a total of 465 seats).

Shigeru Ishiba, Prime Minister of Japan
[Photo by Yonhap News]

The coalition ruling party formed by the LDP and Komeito is also in a precarious position regarding the majority. In the exit poll, Komeito is expected to win fewer than 30 seats, failing to maintain its current 32 seats. The LDP-Komeito coalition is predicted to hold 174 to 254 seats, raising the possibility that the coalition may lose its majority in the final vote count.

Responsibility for the election defeat is likely to be attributed to Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who took office on the 1st of this month. There is also analysis within the LDP that Ishiba, whose support base is weak, may end up as a short-lived prime minister.

On the other hand, the main opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, is expected to significantly increase its number of seats to between 128 and 191. NHK conducted the exit poll at approximately 4,000 locations, surveying 318,000 people that day.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.