D-3 to Japan General Election... Ruling LDP's 'Poor Performance' Deepens in Polls

"Impact of Slush Fund Scandal Beyond Imagination"
Jamin and Gongmyeong Coalition Majority Also Uncertain

With the Japanese House of Representatives (Lower House) election just three days away, various opinion polls show a deepening slump for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). The LDP is facing a situation where not only a single-party majority but also a coalition majority with Komeito is becoming uncertain. On the other hand, the main opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), has made significant gains.

According to a recent opinion poll conducted by Mainichi Shimbun in collaboration with the private broadcasting network JNN on the 24th, the LDP is estimated to win between 171 and 225 seats out of the total 465 seats in this general election, while Komeito is expected to secure 23 to 29 seats. This means that the LDP’s single-party majority (233 seats or more) as well as a coalition majority with Komeito is uncertain. This is a deterioration compared to last week’s results from the same poll, where Mainichi projected the LDP and Komeito to win 203?250 seats and 24?29 seats respectively.

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

Earlier, both the progressive-leaning Asahi Shimbun and the right-leaning Sankei Shimbun analyzed that the LDP-Komeito coalition government might fail to secure a majority of seats. In this general election, 465 members will be elected, combining 289 from single-member districts and 176 from proportional representation. The last time the LDP lost its status as the single largest party was in the House of Representatives election held in August 2009.

Meanwhile, in this Mainichi poll, the CDP is projected to increase its seats significantly from the current 98 to between 126 and 177. In the previous poll, the CDP’s seats were predicted to be between 117 and 163, so this represents an increase of about 10 seats. Notably, the ruling party’s rise was confirmed in 44 so-called “slush fund” districts where the LDP either did not field candidates due to the fallout from the “slush fund scandal” or did not allow dual candidacy in proportional representation.

The newspaper noted, “The impact of the slush fund incident is more serious than expected,” adding that the LDP “lacks material for a counteroffensive.” Furthermore, it was revealed the day before that the LDP headquarters deposited 20 million yen (approximately 180 million KRW) into a branch led by a lawmaker excluded from nomination due to involvement in the slush fund scandal right after candidate registration closed, which is seen as further fueling public dissatisfaction.

Shigeru Ishiba, the new Japanese Prime Minister and LDP executive, is focusing on aggressively targeting 40 key constituencies while intensifying attacks against the CDP. During a campaign speech in Mito City, Ibaraki Prefecture, Ishiba appealed to voters by saying, “The current situation is extremely serious,” and “While regime change is said to be political reform, we have no idea what policies they intend to implement. We must not entrust Japan to such irresponsible people.”

In this poll, the approval rating for the Ishiba Cabinet was recorded at 31%, while 41% responded that they do not support the cabinet. In Japan, a cabinet approval rating below 30% is generally considered a “resignation crisis.”

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.