D-1 LDP Leadership Election... Key to Final Alliances Amid Tight Three-Way Race

The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership election to decide Japan's next prime minister is just one day away. Attention is focused on who will become the 'post-Kishida' amid a tight three-way race between former Secretary-General Shigeru Ishiba, Minister in charge of Economic Security Sanae Takaichi, and former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi. With no clear frontrunner and a second (runoff) vote almost certain, the key question is where the lawmakers' votes will go in the final stages of the election amid shifting alliances.

From the left, Shinjiro Koizumi, former Minister of the Environment, Shigeru Ishiba, former Secretary-General, Sanae Takaichi, Minister in charge of Economic Security [Image source=AP Yonhap News]

According to local reports including FNN on the 26th, this year's LDP leadership election is being contested by a record nine candidates. FNN's own analysis shows that among current Diet members, former Environment Minister Koizumi has secured support from around 60 members, while former Secretary-General Ishiba and Minister Takaichi each have backing from about 40 members. Approximately 40 lawmakers have yet to decide whom to support.

Meanwhile, among party members, support for former Secretary-General Ishiba is dominant nationwide, especially in Tokyo and Shimane. The LDP leadership election combines votes from Diet members (368 votes) and party members and supporters (368 votes). If no candidate wins a majority, a runoff is held between the top two candidates, combining the 368 Diet member votes and 47 votes from local party organizations.

FNN stated, "Combining the Diet member and party member votes, the race is fiercely contested among Ishiba, Takaichi, and Koizumi," adding, "It is increasingly likely that two of these three will advance to a runoff." The Yomiuri Shimbun also reported the day before, citing its own survey of 361 Diet members, that the top two candidates among these three frontrunners will almost certainly proceed to a runoff. The newspaper noted, "Securing around 140 votes in total will guarantee a place in the runoff." The voting by party members and supporters closes the day before the election.

Accordingly, candidates are making their final efforts to secure the support of Diet members one day before the election. It is reported that some of the approximately 50 members of the House of Councillors, facing elections next summer, have withheld their support to gauge which candidate would be advantageous for their re-election. Local media report that despite the dissolution of major factions following last year's slush fund scandal, meetings of lawmakers from various factions are still taking place. Thirty lawmakers from the Abe faction held a meeting the day before to exchange views on the leadership election. About ten lawmakers from the Nikai faction also gathered under the leadership of former Minister for Internal Affairs and Communications Ryota Takeda. Therefore, it is anticipated that shifting alliances among these lawmakers in the final stages will be a significant factor.

Former Secretary-General Ishiba, who enjoys strong support from party members, is making his fifth attempt. Having served twice as party secretary-general, he is a veteran politician with 12 terms and a policy expert, but is considered to have relatively weak factional support within the party. This was the reason he lost to former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in the 2012 election despite finishing first in the first round of party member voting. He is also known for having a strained relationship with Deputy President Taro Aso, the 'kingmaker' who maintained his faction during the dissolution of party factions amid the slush fund scandal. Currently, about 54 lawmakers belong to the Aso faction.

Former Environment Minister Koizumi, aiming to become Japan's youngest-ever prime minister in his 40s, is the son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. He enjoys strong support from former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga and is currently strong among Diet members, but his lack of cabinet experience is seen as a weakness. Recently, his support has faltered after pledging to introduce a 'separate surnames for married couples' system, as conservative LDP supporters strongly oppose this. Analysts suggest he underestimated the opposition among the party's predominantly elderly male membership, who hold voting rights in the leadership election.

There is also a possibility that Japan's first female prime minister will emerge from this election. The candidate is Minister in charge of Economic Security Sanae Takaichi, a right-wing politician nicknamed the 'female Abe.' Initially, the election was expected to be a two-horse race between former Secretary-General Ishiba and former Environment Minister Koizumi, but Minister Takaichi, who had been third in support, surged by absorbing right-wing conservative backing, reshaping the contest into a three-way race. Born in 1961, she has held key posts such as Minister of Finance, Minister of Foreign Affairs, and Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry, positions commonly held by past prime ministers, earning positive evaluations. If she becomes prime minister, she plans to continue the economic, diplomatic, and security policies of former Prime Minister Abe, including Abenomics.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.