'Economics Blueprint' 3rd Plenary Session in China Opens Today... Key Points to Watch?

Uncertain Expectations for Cebu Economic Policy
Attention on Slogan Intensity and Personnel Appointments

As the major plenary session that will outline the economic policy direction of 'Xi Jinping's third term' opens on the 15th, attention is focused on the slogans and tone of the blueprint to be presented by the Chinese Communist Party. While the consensus is that there is little to expect beyond the general economic policy direction, there is also speculation that a provocative declaration to elevate national power and technology to a world-class level may be reiterated.

According to the Chinese Communist Party's official newspaper, the People's Daily, the 3rd Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party (the 3rd Plenum) will open on the 15th at the Jingxi Hotel in Beijing for a four-day schedule. The Central Committee, formed through the National Congress held every five years, holds a total of seven plenary sessions during its five-year term, and this session is the third meeting that presents economic development policies and reform tasks.

[Image source= Xinhua News Agency]

Slogans Without Distinction... Little Hope for Decisive Economic Policies

With both domestic demand and exports, which have supported economic growth so far, failing to escape sluggish trends, the 3rd Plenum is clearly an event that Xiconomics (a portmanteau of Xi Jinping and economics) will treat as a turning point. The timing of the meeting, delayed by nearly eight months compared to usual periods, reflects the current economic crisis and the Party's concerns.

However, the market consensus is that it will be difficult for the 3rd Plenum to present any strikingly 'decisive' economic policies. It is expected that the medium- to long-term slogan of 'new quality productive forces' will be prominently featured, but unless specific policies are disclosed, it will merely broaden the scope of the 'high-quality production' that has been consistently mentioned.

According to the People's Daily, the new quality productive forces are defined as "advanced productive forces characterized by innovation playing a leading role, departing from traditional economic growth methods and productive force development paths, featuring cutting-edge technology, high efficiency, and high quality." This was first mentioned by President Xi Jinping in September last year and was officially set as a goal in the government work report at the National People's Congress (NPC) in March.

However, some believe that this 3rd Plenum could be a watershed moment in Xi's governance. A political scientist from Tsinghua University, who requested anonymity, told the Hong Kong South China Morning Post (SCMP), "This could be the most important decisive moment since Xi Jinping's vision for national reform was presented in 2013," adding, "It will lay the foundation for the legacy of the 'great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation' by 2049." The year 2049 marks the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China, and Xi has announced a 'century goal' to build a socialist modernized power by then.

SCMP reported, "The main focus of this meeting is to decide strategies to address the economic difficulties facing the country," but also noted, "It is highly likely that detailed content regarding the goal of becoming a technological superpower with a world-class military by 2049 will be revealed."

Neil Thomas, a researcher at the Asia Society Policy Institute, predicted, "Xi Jinping will push his agenda focusing on Party control, technological self-reliance, financial risk mitigation, social welfare, and supply-side industrial policies through this meeting," and anticipated discussions on pro-business policies, the central government's role in supporting local government debt, tax reforms, and relaxation of the household registration system.

Another political analyst from mainland China, who requested anonymity, said, "The meeting will present a five-year plan blueprint to be implemented by 2030," but added, "To understand the Party's language, one must look at the government work report and major policies in March next year. If you want to celebrate, you will have to wait until after that."

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

Whereabouts of Fallen Officials?... Attention on Successor to Qin Gang, Foreign Minister

It is highly likely that the 3rd Plenum will also finalize diplomatic appointments, including those related to national defense. Upon the launch of his third term, Xi Jinping revealed a hardline stance by appointing Qin Gang as Foreign Minister and Li Shangfu as Minister of National Defense, both symbols of 'wolf warrior diplomacy,' but neither served a full year before falling from power last year. Notably, when the schedule for the 3rd Plenum was announced on the 27th of last month, the Party decided to expel former Minister Li and his predecessor Wei Fenghe from the Party.

The 3rd Plenum is expected to strip the Central Committee membership of the two defense ministers who are still officially in office. The fate of fallen military figures such as former Rocket Force Commander Li Yuchao, former Rocket Force Political Commissar Xu Zhongbo, and former Strategic Support Force Commander Ju Qiansheng may also be addressed. Dong Jun, the current Minister of National Defense and successor to former Minister Li, may be appointed as a member of the Central Military Commission at this meeting.

There is also interest in whether clues will emerge regarding the whereabouts of former Foreign Minister Qin Gang, who fell from power in July last year. Among the candidates mentioned as successors to the Foreign Minister, a position currently concurrently held by Wang Yi, Director of the Party Central Foreign Affairs Office, are Liu Jianchao, head of the Party's International Liaison Department, and Ma Zhaoxu, Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs.

Meanwhile, Chinese state media such as Xinhua News Agency are enthusiastically publishing articles praising Xi Jinping's achievements over the past decade to build momentum for the 3rd Plenum. As usual, the results of the 3rd Plenum, which concludes on the 18th, will be released on the closing day in the form of a communique summarizing the main points.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.