[Sisibibi] The Problem with 'Trump 2.0' Is 'Uncertainty'

"The biggest danger the world faces in 2024 is Donald Trump."

[Image source=Yonhap News]

In an analysis article with this headline last November, the British current affairs weekly The Economist wrote that "(Trump) is casting a dark shadow over the world." At the time, The Economist predicted that "Trump will wage war against any institution that stands in his way, including the courts and the Department of Justice." It added, "If Trump’s second term begins, there will be significant changes to the US-centered world order," and advised that "preparations must be expedited."

Seven months later, last month, The Economist released its forecast for the upcoming US presidential election scheduled for November. The probability of Trump’s victory is 67%, while Biden’s is 33%. Previously, The Economist first released this model’s forecast in June 2020, when Joe Biden, then the Democratic candidate, had an 85% chance of winning, far ahead of former President Trump’s 15% chance of reelection. The prediction proved accurate.

Two weeks after this forecast was announced, the first TV debate was held, and 67% of viewers judged that "Trump performed better." Coincidentally, this is the same figure The Economist predicted before the debate. The response that Trump did better was more than double, solidifying the momentum.

At some point, foreign media began frequently using the term "Trump-proof." This refers to measures such as legislation or policies that act as a "shield" to prevent presidential power abuse, ensuring that even if the variable of Trump’s return to power occurs, the US institutions and systems will not be shaken to their roots.

The world is already busy preparing Trump-proof measures in various countries to brace for the Trump 2.0 era. Canada launched a dedicated US election team in January to prepare for former US President Trump’s return to power, and Germany dispatched Michael Link, the coordinator for transatlantic cooperation, as a special envoy to the US earlier this year. Former Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison also met with former President Trump in May. Even neighboring Japan is aligning with Trump’s side, with former Prime Minister Tar? As? meeting former President Trump at Trump Tower in April.

If the Trump 2.0 era arrives, the Korean Peninsula is expected to be the region most fundamentally affected. The Brookings Institution, a US think tank, sees a high possibility that former President Trump will actively engage in North Korea issues regardless of ideology. It even mentioned the possibility of allowing South Korea to arm itself with nuclear weapons.

In the industrial sector, since former President Trump advocates repealing environmental policies, various scenarios such as repealing the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) or reducing subsidies are being discussed if he returns to power. There is also a possibility that additional investments will be demanded from domestic semiconductor companies that have already announced large-scale investments.

Furthermore, it is forecasted that tariff increases due to Trump’s extreme protectionist policies could reduce South Korea’s exports to the US by hundreds of billions of dollars. As the US imposes tariffs on third countries, reducing their exports to the US, imports of Korean intermediate goods are also expected to decrease by nearly $10 billion.

In this way, if Trump is elected, there are many worrisome forecasts such as a stronger dollar, intensified protectionism, and increased US fiscal deficits. However, the core issue is that "uncertainty" will increase. This means it will be difficult to predict which direction things will take. While unpredictability can help disrupt the balance of adversaries, it becomes poison when dealing with allies. Therefore, now more than ever, the public, private, and government sectors must unite and focus on preparations that prioritize national interests. This is especially true if we do not want to face an unpredictable disaster more severe than eight years ago. This is why attention is focused on the actions of President Yoon Suk-yeol and our officials attending the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit held in Washington D.C. until the 11th.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.