"Macron's Gamble? Bold Challenge? Will the Early General Election Bet Pay Off? (Comprehensive)"

Exit Poll Results Released, Surprise "Parliament Dissolution" Declaration About 1 Hour Later...General Election on the 30th

"French President Emmanuel Macron, defeated by the far-right in France, has taken a gamble." (CNN)

"A dramatic night of European elections ended with a bombshell from President Macron." (BBC)

After suffering a crushing defeat to the far-right National Rally (RN) party in the European Parliament elections, President Macron shocked the political world and major foreign media on the 9th (local time) by dissolving the parliament and calling for an early general election. They unanimously described it as a "gamble" and a "high-risk dice roll."

French President Emmanuel Macron announcing the dissolution of the parliament
[Photo by EPA Yonhap News]

Macron pulls out the surprise card of "parliament dissolution"

On the night the European Parliament elections concluded, President Macron addressed the nation, stating "I have decided to return the choice about the future of the parliament to you," and "I am dissolving the parliament this evening." This announcement came just over an hour after the exit poll results were released. Especially since it came only weeks before the 2024 Olympics, even members of the ruling party regarded it as surprising news.

Announcing the early general election, President Macron said, "The first round of the lower house election will be held on the 30th of this month, and the second round on the 7th of next month," emphasizing, "It is a serious and significant decision, but above all, an action based on trust." He added, "I trust the French people’s ability to make the best choice for themselves and future generations."

It is the first time in 27 years since former President Jacques Chirac in 1997 that the French president has exercised the authority to dissolve parliament. This move followed exit polls estimating that the RN, led by Marine Le Pen, secured 31.5% of the vote, more than double the expected 15.2% for Macron’s Renaissance party. Macron had already lost the parliamentary majority in 2022.

In his speech, President Macron acknowledged defeat, saying, "We cannot act as if nothing has happened." However, he warned strongly against the rise of far-right forces, stating, "The rise of nationalists and demagogues threatens not only our country but all of Europe, and France’s position in Europe and the world," and "The far-right impoverishes the French people while leading our country to ruin."

Marine Le Pen, the leading far-right European politician heading RN, welcomed the announcement of the early general election. She said, "It shows that when the people vote, the people win," and emphasized, "We are ready to rebuild the nation, defend the interests of the French people, and end the war." Jordan Bardella, RN leader and regarded as the "new face of the European far-right," called it "an unprecedented defeat for the current government" and "the first day of the post-Macron era."

Far-right politician Marine Le Pen (left), leader of the French far-right party National Rally (RN), and Jordan Bardella, the party's president [Image source=AP Yonhap News]

Assessments of "high-risk gamble" continue... Analysis suggests "intention to pull down Le Pen"

For President Macron, already politically cornered, this surprise card of dissolving parliament?a presidential prerogative?was interpreted as an attempt to seek change. The judgment that the rise of Le Pen and the far-right party could no longer be ignored was also a factor.

France24 reported, "President Macron shocked the public by dissolving parliament and announcing an early general election," calling it "Macron’s gamble." BBC described the early election call as "a surprising move and a big risk for President Macron." Politico Europe noted that RN had been demanding parliament dissolution for weeks and diagnosed, "The French president, humiliated by Le Pen’s victory, is now rolling the dice with high risk."

AP also pointed out, "This decision could backfire. It carries a significant risk of increasing Le Pen’s chances of coming to power," and noted the possibility that Macron might have to govern alongside a prime minister with a completely opposite political stance. President Macron still has three years left in his term.

The early general election in France at the end of this month will elect 577 members of the lower house for a five-year term. If RN, led by Le Pen, advances similarly to the European Parliament elections, Macron’s political career will inevitably be damaged.

On the other hand, unlike the European Parliament elections, the French general election requires a majority in the first round, making it difficult for far-right candidates to enter the parliament, according to some analyses. Ultimately, Macron’s surprise card of dissolving parliament is explained as a simple intention to pull down Le Pen.

Mustafa Raman, Eurasia Group’s Europe representative, interpreted, "It will put the brakes on Le Pen," adding, "The basic forecast is that it will be difficult for her to secure a majority in the general election." Politico Europe explained, "While the European Parliament elections gave RN a decisive victory, such a clear win is unlikely in the general election. Left and right voters usually unite behind mainstream candidates to defeat the far-right."

Independent consultant Yves Betroncini told Bloomberg News, "It’s not a simple gamble but a bold move," interpreting, "Usually, when someone moves like this, it means they have few cards left."

Bloomberg News reported, citing sources, that "President Macron sees this election as an opportunity to change the situation and secure a stronger moderate majority." Other sources also conveyed that since the far-right party’s seat count is still less than 40% of the total, Macron’s side believes Le Pen will not dominate the legislature.

Arnaud Stephan said on France’s BRMTV, "President Macron responded to the shock (defeat in the European Parliament elections) with an even bigger shock," adding, "Now we are talking more about the general election than the European Parliament election."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.