Far-Right Advances in European Parliament Elections... Future Implications (Comprehensive Report 2)

In the European Parliament elections that concluded on the 9th (local time), the center-right maintained its position as the largest party in the parliament, while, as initially expected, the far-right forces made significant gains. In France, President Emmanuel Macron, who suffered a crushing defeat to the far-right party, dissolved the parliament and announced early general elections. In Germany, the far-right party, which sparked controversy over its pro-Nazi stance, secured second place. As this election was essentially a midterm evaluation of the established political powers, the ruling parties in major countries were brought to their knees, signaling aftershocks not only in individual countries but across the entire EU political landscape.

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

Far-right Gains as Expected... Center-right Maintains First Place

According to the analysis of the expected seat distribution in the European Parliament updated as of 1 a.m. on the 10th, the European People's Party (EPP), which is currently the largest party with a center-right orientation, is expected to maintain its position as the largest party in the European Parliament by securing 189 seats (26.25%) out of the total 720 seats. This slightly exceeds its current 176 seats (25.0%) out of 705 seats. This is also an increase compared to the previously released first analysis data.

Following that, the center-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D), the second-largest party, is expected to hold onto second place with 135 seats (18.75%). However, the proportion of seats held by the center-left has slightly decreased from the previous 19.7%. The third-largest party, the centrist Renew Europe (RE), is expected to drop significantly from its current 102 seats to 83 seats.

Source: European Parliament

On the other hand, the far-right and hard-right political groups made gains as expected in this election. The hard-right European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) are predicted to increase their seats from 69 to 72, and the far-right Identity and Democracy (ID), considered more extreme than ECR, is expected to rise from 49 to 58 seats. The number of seats held by far-right parties not affiliated with any European Parliament political group also expanded. For example, the Alternative for Germany (AfD), which was expelled from ID, is expected to secure at least 16 seats, having placed second in the German European Parliament election exit polls.

Ursula von der Leyen, the current EU Commission President and EPP candidate, said, "Today is a good day for the EPP. We have won the election," but also warned of the rise of the far-right, stating, "The world around us is in turmoil." She emphasized, "External and internal forces are trying to destabilize our society and weaken Europe," and added, "We will never allow that to happen."

Politico Europe diagnosed that "the political center of Europe is shifting to the right." The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) evaluated that "the mainstream party supporting the European Union (EPP) will maintain power in Brussels," but also noted, "this result has shifted European politics to the right."

The European Parliament is scheduled to announce the final results reflecting the vote count on the morning of the 10th. The voter turnout for this European Parliament election is estimated to exceed 51%, the highest level since 1994 (56.67%).

French President Emmanuel Macron announced in a national address on the 9th (local time) that he would dissolve the parliament and hold early general elections. [Image source=AFP Yonhap News]

"Macron's Gamble?" France Dissolves Parliament... Far-right Party Rises to Second in Germany

France and Germany stand out as countries where the far-right forces made particularly notable gains. From the moment exit polls were released, major foreign media outlets flooded with evaluations such as "a harsh rebuke to President Macron" and "a shocking defeat for President Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz."

Upon the exit polls showing a crushing defeat to the far-right National Rally (RN) led by Marine Le Pen, President Macron immediately dissolved the parliament and called for early general elections. The plan is to hold early elections on the 30th of this month and the 7th of next month. For President Macron, this move is interpreted as playing the parliament dissolution card, a presidential prerogative, to seek change amid political pressure. He expressed concern over the rise of far-right forces, saying, "The rise of nationalists and demagogues threatens not only our country but also the entire Europe, and France's position in Europe and the world."

France24 described the early election card as "Macron's gamble." BBC reported, "Calling early elections is surprising and a big risk for President Macron." Le Pen, leader of RN, welcomed the early elections, stating, "We are ready to rebuild the nation, defend the interests of the French people, and end the war."

In Germany, the far-right AfD rose while the so-called traffic light coalition led by Chancellor Scholz was overshadowed. In this election, AfD is expected to secure 16.5% of the vote, placing second behind the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU) alliance. Although this falls short of the first-quarter poll results that exceeded 20%, the far-right's rise was confirmed despite recent controversies such as pro-Nazi remarks and bribery scandals ahead of the election.

Additionally, far-right parties gained ground in Hungary and Austria. Viktor Orb?n, the far-right Hungarian Prime Minister who is not affiliated with any EU political group, declared victory. Nationalist parties also won or made gains in Cyprus, Greece, Bulgaria, and the Netherlands. In Italy, the Brothers of Italy (Fdi) led by Giorgia Meloni is leading with an estimated 28% of the vote.

Co-leader Tino Chrupalla and other members of the far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD) are celebrating while looking at the exit poll results on the 9th (local time).
[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

Immigration and Security Concerns Behind Far-right Gains... Political Aftershocks

This far-right surge was predicted early on. Externally, it is attributed to the security crises Europe faces, and internally, to the rapid increase in immigrants due to refugees. Locally, amid the simultaneous wars in Ukraine and between Israel and Hamas, inflation soared due to the pandemic, intensifying backlash against refugee support policies and fueling populism.

The New York Times (NYT) stated, "Factors behind the far-right rise include anger over pandemic management, inflation, and the consequences of the Ukraine war," and diagnosed that "this election revealed the practical weaknesses of the governments of major EU countries, France and Germany." The recent assassination attempt on the Slovak president last month also reflects Europe's divided state, split between extremes.

Currently, the so-called 'informal coalition government' within the European Parliament, consisting of EPP, S&D, and RE, respectively represent center-right, center-left, and centrist positions. However, the rise of far-right forces is seen as a significant challenge to the mainstream pro-EU authorities. As discussions on a grand coalition led by the EPP proceed, political group realignments are expected, and the political situations in major countries like France and Germany have become more complex, increasing political dynamism.

CNN stated, "The rise of far-right forces in this election is not unexpected," but also predicted, "The gains for the far-right may seem minor in terms of seat numbers but will be quite significant." The outlet pointed out that even among right-wing parties, there are major differences on key issues such as support for Ukraine and pro-EU stances, noting, "They differ in policy approaches. If domestic politics shift to the hard right, the center-right in the European Parliament may cooperate with the hard right." This political shift could complicate EU legislation and intensify confusion. The Guardian also forecasted, "EU legislation will become more complicated."

Economic media CNBC predicted that the far-right gains confirmed in this election will impact policies on immigration, environment, Ukraine and defense, industrial strategy, and EU enlargement. The far-right, having increased seats, is expected to pressure the parliament to block refugee admissions, roll back climate policies, and reduce support for Ukraine.

Citigroup, in a previously released report, predicted, "Some far-right and far-left parties in Europe have close ties with Russia and China and may potentially seek to block increases in defense spending." Consulting firm Verisk Maplecroft forecasted, "It will become more difficult for the EU to accept new member states," and "With sluggish progress in accession negotiations for all candidate countries, the EU may remain at 27 member states until 2029."

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

Accordingly, the first test for the centrist mainstream is expected to be the approval of the EU Commission President, anticipated in July. Despite the rise of far-right parties, the EPP is still expected to maintain first place, making it highly likely that the current Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will be nominated as a candidate.

The NYT stated, "Von der Leyen, who was approved by a margin of only nine votes five years ago, will have to conduct intensive lobbying for reappointment," and diagnosed, "(With the EPP expected to be the largest party) she narrowly avoided having to bring in the far-right, but now she will face demands from the far-right, especially regarding climate policies."

The 27 EU heads of state are scheduled to hold an informal summit in Brussels, Belgium, on the 17th to begin discussions on leadership formation based on this election. The candidate for Commission President, the head of the EU executive, is expected to be confirmed at the EU summit on the 27th-28th. Subsequently, the candidate agreed upon at the summit must be approved by a vote in the European Parliament, requiring the support of at least 361 out of 720 members. The new Commission is expected to officially take office on December 1.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.