Broad Opposition Wins Around 180 Seats... Ruling Party Maintains Constitutional Amendment Blockade Line but Faces 'Thorny Road'

Vote Counting Surpasses 90%... Democratic Party Leads in 158 Areas
People Power Party's Late Surge Maintains Constitutional Amendment Blockade Line
However, Governing Burden Inevitable for 'Geoya' Coalition

[Image source=Yonhap News]

As the Democratic Party of Korea is expected to secure a majority of seats in the 22nd general election, the opposition bloc is projected to obtain around 180 seats. This is interpreted as the public siding with the judgment against the Yoon Seok-yeol administration amid the debate between 'regime judgment theory' and 'opposition judgment theory.'

The People Power Party has suffered a 'three consecutive general election defeats' in the 20th (2016), 21st (2020), and now the 22nd general elections. Although it seems likely to maintain the 'constitutional amendment blocking line' with a late surge, it will inevitably be dragged along by the large opposition party in this National Assembly as well.

Vote Counting Rate Surpasses 90%...Democratic Party Leads in 158 Districts

As of 3:05 a.m. on the 11th, with a vote counting rate of 93.99%, the Democratic Party is leading in 158 districts, while the People Power Party leads in 93 districts. If the current trend continues, the Democratic Party is expected to easily secure a majority with constituency seats alone.

The Democratic Party achieved a large number of victories in the Seoul metropolitan area, a barometer of public sentiment. They won not only in traditional strongholds such as Gangbuk, Seongbuk, Dongdaemun, and Jungnang but also in the so-called 'Hangang Belt,' considered the biggest battleground. Democratic candidates were elected in notable districts such as Yeongdeungpo-gap (Chae Hyun-il), Mapo-eul (Jung Cheong-rae), and Jung-Seongdong-gap (Jeon Hyun-hee).

In the party vote for proportional representation, with 59.08% of votes counted, the People Power Party's satellite party, Future of the People, received the highest share at 38.12%. The Democratic Party-led Together Democratic Alliance received 26.19%, the Innovation Party for Justice 23.47%, and the Reform Party 3.40%.

According to exit polls released earlier by the three major terrestrial broadcasters, Future of the People is expected to secure 16 to 19 proportional seats, Together Democratic Alliance 10 to 14 seats, Innovation Party for Justice 12 to 14 seats, and Reform Party 1 to 3 seats.

Combining constituency and proportional seats, the opposition bloc is expected to hold around 180 seats, becoming a 'giant opposition.' Following the landslide victory in the 21st general election in 2020, the current election results maintain a minority government with a majority opposition.

People including Han Dong-hoon, the General Election Committee Chairman of the People Power Party, are watching the exit poll results on the 10th at the 22nd National Assembly election counting situation room set up at the National Assembly Library in Yeouido, Seoul. [Image source=Yonhap News]

People Power Party Defeated Again...Likely to Maintain Constitutional Amendment Blocking Line

Although the People Power Party was defeated, it is expected to prevent the opposition bloc from securing 200 seats, which would allow constitutional amendments. Candidates Kwon Young-se and Na Kyung-won have been confirmed elected in Seoul's Yongsan and Dongjak-eul districts, respectively, where exit polls had predicted defeat. Additionally, Kim Jae-seop of the People Power Party won against Democratic candidate Ahn Gwi-ryeong in Dobong-gap, Seoul, showing a strong performance.

The ruling party's complete defeat in this general election is analyzed as a result of the public's judgment against the Yoon Seok-yeol administration.

If the opposition bloc secures more than 180 seats, they can effectively pass all bills unilaterally using the fast-track legislative procedure, increasing the burden on the government and ruling party's governance. In particular, if the Innovation Party for Justice secures more than 10 seats, it is expected to pressure the government.

Han Dong-hoon, the emergency committee chairman of the People Power Party, is scheduled to announce his position on the election defeat on the morning of the same day. Lee Man-hee, the party's situation room chief, said at the People Power Party's vote counting situation room located in the basement of the National Assembly Library in Yeouido, Seoul, "We will organize the statements and separately announce the time and place in the morning."