If I Vote, Will the Outcome Change? "Voter Turnout by Age Group Is a Key Variable"

General Election D-DAY, Final Voter Turnout Predictions Vary
Experts Say "High Turnout Favors Opposition" Majority

The recent April 10 general election recorded a historic high early voting rate of 31.28%. Will the strong interest in early voting continue through to the main election day? What is the functional relationship between the final voter turnout and the election results? We asked experts.

Choi Byung-cheon, Director of the New Growth Economy Research Institute. Photo by Yoon Dong-joo doso7@

Will the final voter turnout be higher than the 21st general election?

Political commentator Park Sang-byeong said in a phone interview with Asia Economy on the 9th, "The final voter turnout is expected to rise slightly to around 66.5%," adding, "The 21st general election also had a relatively high turnout of 66.2%." Polling expert Lee Taek-soo, CEO of Realmeter, also expressed on the 8th that "it seems likely to be around 69%."

Choi Byung-cheon, director of the New Growth Economy Research Institute, predicted that the high early voting rate would not significantly affect the main election day turnout. He said, "I expect the overall turnout to be somewhat lower," and added, "We should view the change from a one-day voting system to a three-day voting system." This implies that rather than attributing special significance to early voting, voters are increasingly accepting dispersed voting.

Political commentator Lee Jong-hoon forecasted that the final turnout for this general election would be similar to that of the 21st. He explained, "While the early voting rate has increased compared to the last general election, it is not as high as during the presidential election."

What is the functional relationship between final voter turnout and election results?

How does the final voter turnout affect election results? Realmeter CEO Lee suggested, "In recent general elections with voter turnout exceeding 60%, the Democratic Party of Korea secured a majority of seats," implying that the turnout he predicted at 69% could favor the Democratic Party. Indeed, in the 17th (60.6%) and 21st (66.2%) general elections, where turnout exceeded 60%, the Uri Party and the Democratic Party respectively won majority seats.

Commentator Park Sang-byeong said, "If a large number of seniors aged 60 and above, who tend to lean toward the People Power Party, vote, it will be advantageous for the People Power Party," adding, "Conversely, since voter turnout among those aged 60 and above is usually high, if turnout among those in their 30s to 50s increases this time, it will be much more favorable for the Democratic Party." He further explained, "Although the population aged 65 and above is large, when you look closely, the population in their 30s to 50s is even larger."

Political commentator Lee Jong-hoon said, "If the turnout is high, it reflects a strong effect of the sentiment to judge the current administration," and "If it is low, it means that the sentiment to judge the administration is somewhat less active." This suggests that the sentiment to judge the administration can influence the final turnout. On the other hand, Choi Byung-cheon, who predicted a lower final turnout, emphasized, "It is impossible to definitively say what results the turnout will bring."

Who benefits from the high early voting rate?

Amid the record-high early voting rate for a general election, both ruling and opposition parties claim that the high early voting rate favors them. Political commentator Lee Jong-hoon said, "We have to wait for the final results to know," adding, "The hypothesis that a high early voting rate benefits the Democratic Party was already disproven in the last presidential election." Despite recording a high early voting rate of 36.9% in the 2022 presidential election, People Power Party candidate Yoon Seok-youl defeated Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung.

He said, "The premise of the hypothesis that a high early voting rate benefits the Democratic Party is that young people are progressive," adding, "There are many conservatives among young people, and fundamentally, they tend to be non-ideological." He also added, "The People Power Party also made a great effort to encourage voting this time, and concerns about illegal elections within the conservative camp have significantly decreased."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.