DRAM Prices Stable for Two Months... Expected to Rise Again in Q2

DRAMeXchange March Fixed Transaction Prices Announced
Q2 Price Increase Rate Higher for NAND
"Memory Price Uptrend Likely to Continue Until Next Year"

After a significant increase in January, DRAM prices remained flat through February and March. This was interpreted as prices being maintained due to no separate negotiations occurring after contracts were made at the beginning of the quarter. NAND flash prices in March also remained unchanged from the previous month, hovering around the $5 mark. DRAM prices, having taken a breather, are expected to rise further in the second quarter, with forecasts suggesting that NAND product prices will increase at a higher rate.

According to market research firm DRAMeXchange on the 2nd, the fixed transaction price (contract price) for general-purpose DRAM products used in PCs (DDR4 8Gb 1Gx8) in March was $1.80. DRAM prices began a full-fledged decline starting in October 2021 amid a sluggish market and failed to show signs of recovery until October last year, when prices rose 15.38% from the previous month to $1.50, marking the first rebound. Prices continued to rise monthly until January, after which they have remained at the same level.

The semiconductor industry interpreted this phenomenon as a result of contract characteristics. An industry insider said, "Since transactions are usually conducted on a quarterly basis, price fluctuations tend to occur mostly at the beginning of the quarter," adding, "After DRAM prices surged in January, prices remained flat in February and March because existing contracts were followed and no additional negotiations took place."

Market research firm TrendForce estimated that DRAM prices in the first quarter rose 15-20% compared to the previous quarter. They forecast a 3-8% price increase in the second quarter. For PC DRAM, the company explained that since inventory levels on the demand side, such as OEM industries, remain high and market demand has not fully recovered, the price increase rate may be somewhat lower than DRAM suppliers’ expectations.

Regarding this, TrendForce stated, "DRAM suppliers are preparing for the overall price trend in the second quarter," and predicted, "Although strategies have not been fully disclosed, it is highly likely that bit shipments will decrease."

The price of general-purpose NAND products (128Gb 16Gx8) used for memory cards and USB devices was $4.90 in March, unchanged from the previous month. NAND prices had been declining continuously since June 2022 but successfully rebounded last October. Prices continued to rise until this month, when they first showed a flat trend.

TrendForce expects NAND prices to rise 13-18% in the second quarter due to limited additional NAND supply and steady demand. They particularly forecast a higher price increase rate for solid-state drives (SSDs), which are NAND-based auxiliary storage devices.

An industry insider explained, "It is not accurate to say that the NAND market situation is better just because NAND prices are rising faster than DRAM prices," adding, "Since the decline in the NAND market was steeper previously, this year the prices are rising more along with the recovery atmosphere in the industry."

The semiconductor industry expects an overall recovery trend to continue not only this year but also into next year, with memory product prices such as DRAM and NAND rising and industry inventories decreasing. Kim Kyuhyun, head of DRAM marketing at SK Hynix, recently said in a conference call, "Inventories are steadily decreasing and are expected to be at a low level by the end of the year," and added, "We also expect the memory market’s upward trend to continue through next year."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.