"Stand Firm Before Great Powers," Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yeol... Will He Secure Practical Gains Amid US-China Conflict?

A Skilled Diplomat Proficient in General and Multilateral Affairs
Challenges Including North Korea Provocations, US Presidential Election, and Pressure from China
Emphasizes "Standing Firm Before Great Powers" in His Book

Cho Tae-yeol, the newly appointed Minister of Foreign Affairs, is moving to pay respects at the National Cemetery in Dongjak-gu, Seoul, on the morning of the 11th.
[Image source=Yonhap News]

New Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yeol will take office on the 12th. He is a seasoned diplomat well-versed in trade and multilateral affairs. He is expected to play a crucial role in strengthening economic security amid the US-China hegemonic rivalry. He shares a close relationship with Jang Ho-jin, the new National Security Office chief, and Cho Tae-yong, the nominee for National Intelligence Service director, both of whom are also from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and need to coordinate on diplomatic and security lines. Given the high global uncertainties this year, including the US presidential election and North Korean provocations, Minister Cho’s responsibilities are expected to grow even more.

The Biggest Challenge in Our Diplomacy: "Setting Coordinates Amid US-China Confrontation"

Minister Cho’s immediate task is to strengthen security cooperation among South Korea, the US, and Japan while reducing conflicts with China and North Korea. As the US-China hegemonic conflict intensifies, a confrontation structure is solidifying between South Korea-US-Japan and North Korea-China-Russia. Tensions surrounding the Korean Peninsula are higher than ever. In his 2021 book, The Power of Pride and Principles, Cho emphasized the need to establish concrete principles, stating, "The biggest challenge in our diplomacy is how to set coordinates amid the US-China confrontation."

He said, "People often say that security depends on the US and the economy on China, so our diplomacy, security, and trade policies should be directed accordingly, but that is merely wishful thinking." He added, "Seeking balance between our ally, the US, and our strategic partner, China, is inherently illogical." From this, it is expected that Minister Cho will prioritize strengthening the South Korea-US alliance and strive to minimize conflicts with China, such as those related to supply chains.

US Presidential Election Variable: "Must Stand Proudly Before Great Powers"

The biggest variable is the US presidential election in November. If President Joe Biden is re-elected, changes will be minimal, but if former President Donald Trump returns, the situation will differ. Considering that during his first term Trump demanded about a fivefold increase in South Korea’s defense cost-sharing for US Forces Korea, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ role as a bridge will become even more important in the event of a regime change. At the parliamentary confirmation hearing on the 8th, Minister Cho said, "It is difficult to predict the outcome (of the US election)," and "The Ministry of Foreign Affairs is monitoring the situation by mobilizing its network."

In his book, Minister Cho emphasized, "Only by acting confidently can we protect our pride and practical interests before great powers," suggesting that even if the Trump administration returns, he is likely to respond based on principles. He also expressed the view that "If we had dealt with the US more composedly and confidently during the times when we were much more dependent on them, the US attitude toward us would have been correspondingly different."

Improving relations with China, which is accelerating the 'weaponization of resources' in response to US export controls, is also a challenge. The stronger the South Korea-US-Japan cooperation becomes, the more pressure China is likely to exert. On the 9th, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs protested against the recent first Indo-Pacific dialogue held by South Korea, the US, and Japan, which expressed concerns over the South China Sea and Taiwan issues, calling it "interference in internal affairs." In this context, holding a South Korea-China-Japan summit as soon as possible is one of Minister Cho’s top priorities. Although a summit is expected to be held in February, many believe it will be realistically difficult.

Minister of Foreign Affairs Cho Tae-yeol Photo by Yonhap News

"The Ministry of Foreign Affairs Is Also an Economic Ministry"…Focus on Economic Security

As a trade expert, Minister Cho is expected to focus on economic security during his tenure. He spent 30 of his 40 years as a diplomat working in the trade sector. In his opening remarks at the confirmation hearing, he said, "I have long believed that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is also part of the economic ministries." Minister Cho has consistently argued that trade negotiations should be conducted by diplomats rather than economic experts. Going forward, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is expected to play a greater role in supply chain issues with China, including those involving gallium and rare earth elements.

Since South Korea began its term as a non-permanent member of the United Nations (UN) Security Council this year, it must also raise its voice on international peace and security, including North Korean issues. Within the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, there is an expectation that Minister Cho, who previously served as ambassador to the UN, will increase the importance of related tasks. However, some believe it will be difficult to achieve significant results regarding North Korea’s nuclear program and sanctions. Professor Kim Dong-yeop of the University of North Korean Studies predicted, "Since North Korea is a domestic issue, South Korea’s presence in the Security Council will only make it more constrained."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.