Japan's Secret Plan to Seize Semiconductor Dominance... Even the US Feared It [Tech Talk]

1980s Japan 5th Generation Computer Project
First Proposal of Revolutionary Parallel Computing Concept
Ignored Domestically and Internationally, Eventually Abandoned
Pursuit of Technical Superiority Led to Losing General-Purpose Usability Mistake

Japan in the early 1980s, several years before experiencing the bubble economy. At that time, Japan, under government leadership, was rapidly catching up with Western economies by excelling in several strategic industries such as shipbuilding, semiconductors, telecommunications equipment, chemicals, and steel.

The brain behind Japan's industrial strategy was the Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI), the predecessor of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. MITI officials closely analyzed the cases of advanced countries at the time, including the United States, the United Kingdom, West Germany, and France, predicted major manufacturing trends, and prepared domestic manufacturers ahead of time to secure market dominance.

In 1982, MITI launched a secret 10-year project to seize the future dominance of the semiconductor industry. This was the "Fifth Generation Computer."

The Future Semiconductor Envisioned by Japanese Bureaucrats: The Fifth Generation Computer

Japan's Fifth Generation Computer Project raised concerns in the United States.

The "Fifth Generation Computer" referred to the evolutionary stage of computer semiconductors as defined by MITI officials at the time. The first generation was vacuum tube computers, the second generation transistors, the third generation semiconductors integrating logic circuits, and the fourth generation processors capable of running programming languages, i.e., CPUs (Central Processing Units).

From the perspective of the 1980s, MITI predicted that after the fourth generation, the core technology of the fifth generation computer would be "parallel computers." Their idea was to connect multiple computers in parallel to increase processing power and elevate computing capabilities to a new level.

MITI immediately launched a project to develop Japan's first and the world's first fifth generation computer. Thousands of researchers from Japan's top semiconductor companies joined the project.

Rumors about Japan's fifth generation computer development plan spread to other countries. The reaction from the United States, which was deeply concerned about losing economic superiority to Japan, was intense. Eventually, the U.S. government established a research institute in Texas benchmarking the fifth generation computer project, and the U.S. Department of Defense even initiated a project to develop intelligent tanks equipped with next-generation semiconductors.

Hundreds of Billions Invested Over a Decade... Ultimately Ignored Domestically and Abroad

The 1st 5th Generation Computer 'Parallel Inference Machine' (PIM) [Image source=Computer Museum homepage]

So, what was the outcome of Japan's fifth generation computer that terrified the world? Today, this project has already faded from people's memories. In reality, the fifth generation computer ended in a disastrous failure.

The actual computer did appear in the world. In 1988, the first computer named "Fifth Generation Computer No. 1" was unveiled, and a concrete roadmap was established to commercialize it by 1991. MITI also promoted projects to use this computer in various industrial fields.

However, once the product was released, it was ignored not only overseas but also in Japan. MITI even distributed software for free, but the market response was cold. After squandering $400 million (approximately 520 billion KRW) over ten years, the Japanese government withdrew all budget support in 1992.

Intel's 80286 CPU released in 1982. The 5th generation computer was overshadowed by this semiconductor and never saw the light of day. [Image source=eBay]

The biggest problem with the fifth generation computer was programming. With 1980s computer technology, writing programs to simultaneously manage hundreds or thousands of processors was extremely difficult. Even if such programs were completed, engineers were reluctant to learn to handle such a complicated product.

More importantly, the semiconductor industry in the 1980s developed in the exact opposite direction of MITI's predictions. MITI expected an era of parallel computers due to the limitations of individual CPU performance, but instead, the advancement of individual CPUs (known as Moore's Law) outpaced other computing methods.

The Measure of Success: Not Technological Superiority but Versatility

Ironically, the fifth generation computer idea proposed by Japan's MITI has come to light now, in the 2020s. With the limits of semiconductor miniaturization processes making it difficult to increase transistor density, Moore's Law has ended.

Now, not only semiconductor companies but also IT companies consider parallel computers essential. Modern data centers connect thousands or tens of thousands of powerful processors. With the advent of the artificial intelligence (AI) era, parallel computing has become even more important. Parallel processors like graphics processing units (GPUs), which arrange hundreds or more cores, are considered indispensable in the IT industry.

NHN Entertainment's TCC server room. Ironically, the heyday of parallel computers began in the late 2010s.
[Image source=NHN Entertainment]

In a way, the fifth generation computer may have been a failed project because it was "too far ahead of its time." Kazuhiro Fuchi, the project leader of the fifth generation computer, later recalled, "Before the project, we were criticized for setting goals that were too ambitious and reckless, and now we are criticized for not achieving those grand goals."

The failure of the fifth generation computer reveals the nature of the semiconductor industry and the broader IT industry. The success or failure of a product depends not on technological superiority but on "versatility."

The first fifth generation computer, capable of parallel operation of up to 1,000 computers, could not even surpass a single Intel CPU, which was the best-selling product in the market at the time. The tasks that could be done with the fifth generation computer could be sufficiently handled by an Intel CPU, and above all, the Intel CPU was already a familiar product to both engineers and consumers.

Japan's MITI fifth generation computer remains a textbook case demonstrating that the most important factor for commercial success is not "being ahead" but "building an ecosystem."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.