"Built a School but No Students"…31% of New Schools Under Enrolled

67 out of 214 Elementary, Middle, and High Schools Are Undercapacity
"Education Office Must Improve Accuracy in Estimating Student Numbers"

Amid a continuous decline in the school-age population due to low birth rates, it has been revealed that 3 out of 10 newly established schools that opened 3 to 5 years ago have significantly fewer students than expected.

On the 1st, the Korea Educational Development Institute announced the student capacity utilization rates of 214 elementary, middle, and high schools nationwide that opened between 2018 and 2020 through the "2023 Local Education Finance Analysis Comprehensive Report."

Student capacity utilization rate is an indicator measuring the number of schools with an appropriate actual student population compared to the projected student population 3 to 5 years after the school’s establishment plan was made. If the student population 3 to 5 years after opening is between 70% and less than 130% of the expected number, it is considered appropriate. Conversely, if it is 130% or more, it is classified as overcapacity, and if it is below 70%, it is classified as undercapacity.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

According to the report, 67 schools, accounting for 31.3% of the schools surveyed, were classified as undercapacity schools. Schools with appropriate student capacity numbered 129 (60.3%), and overcapacity schools numbered 18 (8.4%).

As the school-age population declines faster than expected, the proportion of undercapacity schools is gradually increasing. In contrast, the proportion of overcapacity schools is steadily decreasing.

Overcapacity schools can be alleviated by redistributing students to nearby schools or naturally resolved over the mid to long term as the school-age population decreases. In the case of undercapacity schools, if the cause is delayed development projects or apartment move-ins, the number of students may increase after some time, turning them into appropriately utilized schools.

However, there are concerns that recent education offices have failed to adequately consider the decline in the school-age population and have estimated student numbers using methods similar to the past, leading to an increase in undercapacity schools. Therefore, there is a call to improve the accuracy of predictions. The Development Institute pointed out, "If student numbers are overestimated, it could lead to the proliferation of small-scale schools, which may face criticism for excessive school establishment."

They added, "Education offices should closely monitor undercapacity schools until they reach appropriate utilization rates and actively review various variables that affect student inducement rate predictions."

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Meanwhile, according to the education sector, the number of first-grade students entering elementary school next year is expected to fall below 400,000 for the first time ever. This is a direct hit from the accelerating low birth rate each year.

This year, the number of first-grade elementary students born in 2016 barely exceeded 400,000, at 401,752, but starting with those born in 2017 who will enter school next year, the birth rate sharply declined, causing a significant drop in the number of births. According to Statistics Korea, the number of births was 406,243 in 2016 but dropped by nearly 50,000 to 357,771 in 2017.

The number of ultra-small elementary schools with fewer than 30 students is also increasing. Last year, there were 512 such schools, accounting for 8.3% of all elementary schools. This figure has increased 4.3 times over 20 years from 118 schools in 2002.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.