As Western Support Cuts Off... Ukraine's Arsenal Runs Dry

Foreign Policy Report from the US
"Questions Raised About Ukraine's Counteroffensive Capability Against Russia"

As the Russia-Ukraine war drags on and Western support dwindles, concerns are growing that Ukraine may face the worst-case scenario of losing even more territory instead of launching a major counteroffensive.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

On the 29th (local time), the U.S. foreign affairs media outlet Foreign Policy (FP) reported, citing experts, that doubts are increasing about whether Ukraine can withstand Russia's offensive.

The outlet focused on Russia's large-scale airstrike that day. On the morning of the same day, Russia launched 158 missiles and drones against Ukraine. The airstrike resulted in over 30 deaths and around 200 casualties across Ukraine.

However, it noted that the momentum Ukraine had last summer when it pushed back Russia is now nowhere to be seen.

The counteroffensive is effectively over, and with harsh winter weather approaching, the front lines are expected to stagnate for several months, leading to a prolonged war of attrition. Ukraine is preparing by lowering the conscription age, but its stockpile of munitions is nearly depleted. Although there are calls to attack Russia’s rear supply lines, the lack of long-range precision weapons makes this difficult to execute.

Ukrainian lawmaker Sasha Ustinova expressed concern, saying, "When Russia launches large-scale bombardments against us, we will face a major problem," adding, "because we do not have enough shells."

The biggest issue is that support from the West, including the United States and the European Union (EU), has reached a stalemate. The EU had planned to supply Ukraine with one million shells by March next year, but the delivery is delayed, and U.S. aid proposals are stalled in Congress due to opposition from Republicans. Currently, discussions on aid are completely halted during the year-end and New Year recess.

As a result, Ukraine is forced to focus on defending its territory rather than reclaiming lost land.

Colonel Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, who leads Ukraine’s southern forces, lamented, "Due to the suspension of support and severe shell shortages, we had to reduce military operations."

Meanwhile, Russia has shifted its economy to a wartime footing and allocated 6% of next year’s budget to defense spending. It is replenishing its arsenal by importing drones from Iran and shells from North Korea. Despite suffering hundreds of thousands of casualties, Russia is estimated to currently deploy between 300,000 and 400,000 troops in Ukraine.

As a result of pouring resources into the war, Russia has switched to a counteroffensive, capturing Marinka in the eastern battleground of Donetsk Oblast.

Peter Rough, a senior fellow at the U.S. think tank Hudson Institute, analyzed, "Ukraine’s counteroffensive phase is completely over," adding, "If the U.S. Congress does not pass the aid budget, even defense will be difficult."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.