North Korea May Conduct High-Intensity Provocations Next Year [Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club]

Five ICBM Launches This Year Following Military Agreement Termination

North Korea spent this year increasing military tensions with South Korea. Last month, when the South suspended the effectiveness of some provisions of the September 19 Inter-Korean Military Agreement in response to the launch of a reconnaissance satellite, North Korea immediately declared that it would no longer be bound by the military agreement. It announced the immediate restoration of all military measures that had been suspended on land, sea, and air. This is effectively a declaration of the termination of the military agreement. Subsequently, North Korea also launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). This is the first time North Korea has fired ICBMs five times in a single year. North Korea also claimed that the reconnaissance satellite has entered normal operational status. If the ICBM corresponds to a 'fist,' the reconnaissance satellite corresponds to an 'eye.' This means it is equally threatening.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

▲ Possibility of North Korean Provocations Using Political Schedules = The outlook for next year is also bleak. Ahead of South Korea's general election in April, there is a high possibility that North Korea will carry out military provocations early in the year. The National Intelligence Service also presented this analysis based on North Korea's history of military provocations before the 20th and 21st general elections, the reappointment of key figures related to past major provocations against the South, and recent threats against the South. North Korea carried out a series of provocations before the 20th general election in 2016, including a nuclear test (January 6), drone intrusion (January 13), launch of the Taepodong missile (February 7), and GPS jamming (March 31). Additionally, one month before the 21st general election held in April 2020, North Korea launched short-range ballistic missiles, tactical weapons against the South, in four consecutive launches.

High-intensity Provocations Possible Targeting South Korea’s April Election and U.S. November Presidential Election

Not only South Korea but also major countries overseas have many political schedules. In January, Taiwan holds its 16th presidential and legislative elections; in March, Russia and Ukraine hold presidential elections; in April, the UK holds a general election; and in November, the United States holds its presidential election. Among these, the U.S. presidential election is the biggest issue. Ahead of the U.S. presidential election in November next year, there is a possibility of large-scale provocations such as test launches of ICBMs at normal angles. This could be an effort to highlight the Biden administration’s failure in North Korea policy and support the re-election of Trump, who is favorable to Kim Jong-un. North Korea may aim to prove its capability to strike the U.S. mainland, maximize its bargaining power, and then negotiate nuclear arms reduction talks with a re-elected Trump administration. If President Joe Biden is re-elected, little may change, but if Trump, who tends to disregard alliances, returns to power, it could cause a megaton-level shock to South Korean diplomacy. Former President Trump views alliances strictly from a transactional perspective, so the U.S. nuclear umbrella commitment could also weaken.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

▲ U.S.-South Korea-Japan Cooperation and Close Relations with Russia and China = Military cooperation among the U.S., South Korea, and Japan to counter North Korea’s threats is expected to become more prominent next year. The three countries, which upgraded military cooperation by sharing real-time missile warning information from North Korea, plan to conduct various joint military exercises next year to coordinate closely. The problem is China. Until now, China has tended to shield North Korea’s military provocations by blaming the military threat from the U.S. and South Korea, while avoiding close military and political ties with North Korea. However, if the confrontation with the U.S. becomes more apparent and the U.S.-South Korea-Japan military cooperation is perceived as a threat to China, it is likely that China will actively engage in military cooperation with North Korea and Russia. Some speculate that North Korea, China, and Russia may conduct joint military exercises in the East Sea next year as a countermeasure to the U.S.-South Korea-Japan alliance.

Maintaining Close Relations with China and Russia in Response to U.S.-South Korea-Japan Military Cooperation

In this case, it is an opportunity for North Korea. The North Korea-Russia cooperation, which began in earnest following Kim Jong-un’s sudden visit to Russia last September, is expected to accelerate next year. If Russian President Vladimir Putin succeeds in his fifth term in the March presidential election next year, plans for a reciprocal visit by North Korea could be concretized. In particular, concerns are expected to increase that Russia may be assisting North Korea in advanced defense technologies such as improving reconnaissance satellite performance or ICBM re-entry technology.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

▲ Will North Korea Increase the Intensity of Provocations? = Backed by the ‘camp structure,’ North Korea is expected to continue focusing on nuclear and missile development next year. A seventh nuclear test is also possible. The U.S. Air Force has already deployed additional nuclear detection reconnaissance aircraft. The third type is the WC-135R ‘Constant Phoenix,’ stationed at Offutt Air Force Base in Nebraska. The WC-135R is a specialized reconnaissance aircraft for nuclear detection, equipped with atmospheric sample collection devices on its fuselage sides. It collects and analyzes air particles and gases over areas suspected of nuclear activity to support the determination of nuclear tests and explosions. WC-135 series reconnaissance aircraft have been dispatched over the East Sea since North Korea’s first nuclear test in 2006 whenever nuclear tests or related activities were detected, collecting radioactive materials and conducting related operations.

The possibility of low-intensity provocations is also high. North Korea may temporarily suspend direct military provocations such as missile launches during the winter, when mobility is relatively difficult, and instead increase the fatigue of South Korean forces’ responses through so-called ‘Gray Zone’ provocation strategies. North Korea is likely to adjust the level of military tension through ‘low-cost, high-efficiency’ provocations while continuously probing vulnerabilities in South Korea’s preparedness. A representative provocation is drones. During the recent airspace intrusion by North Korean drones, the South Korean military raised its alert level across all forces and deployed about 20 assets, including army attack helicopters and air force fighter jets and light attack aircraft, but failed to shoot down any of the five drones. It was even confirmed that at least one of these drones returned to North Korea.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.