[Exclusive] 'North Korea Nuclear Pinpoint Operation Plan' First Applied from August Next Year... North Korea Provokes ICBM Again

Completion of 'Operation Plan 2022' for North Korean Nuclear Response by Early Next Year
Scenario Combining US Strategic Weapons and ROK Conventional Forces
Additional Joint Interception Points to Devastate Missile Launch Sites

South Korea and the United States will apply a new “Operation Plan (OPLAN)” for the first time starting with the joint South Korea-U.S. exercise “Ulchi Freedom Shield (UFS)” in August next year. Shortly after confirming that South Korea and the U.S. will conduct nuclear operation scenario training assuming North Korea’s use of nuclear weapons, North Korea launched provocations for two consecutive days, and the level of future provocations is expected to intensify further.

A government official said in a phone interview with Asia Economy on the 18th, “The establishment of ‘OPLAN 2022’ is expected to be completed by the first half of next year, and from the second half, based on this plan, U.S. strategic assets and our military’s conventional weapons will be combined and deployed.”

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Until now, South Korea and the U.S. have applied ‘OPLAN 5015’ in joint exercises. OPLAN 5015 does not include content related to nuclear retaliation (nuclear umbrella). For the U.S. extended deterrence to be activated in the event of North Korea’s nuclear attack on South Korea, the plan of the U.S. Strategic Command, which oversees the three major nuclear forces (strategic nuclear bombers, strategic nuclear submarines, intercontinental ballistic missiles), must be activated, but this is beyond the authority of the Combined Forces Command (Commander of U.S. Forces Korea). Therefore, ‘OPLAN 2022’ includes South Korea-U.S. response strategies to North Korea’s nuclear weapon attacks and joint defense points (JDPI) to be targeted in wartime situations.

Earlier, Kim Tae-hyo, First Deputy Director of the National Security Office, said after the 2nd South Korea-U.S. Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) meeting held in Washington D.C. on the 15th (local time), “We plan to include nuclear operation scenarios in next year’s Ulchi Freedom Shield exercise and other South Korea-U.S. joint exercises and train together,” adding, “Even if a nuclear war actually occurs, U.S. nuclear weapons, South Korean non-nuclear weapons, and strategic assets will operate together, protecting each other during military activities.” This means that the training plan including the ‘nuclear operation scenario’ agreed upon at the 2nd NCG meeting will be incorporated into OPLAN 2022. In September last year, at the 3rd High-Level Extended Deterrence Strategy Committee (EDSCG) meeting, the U.S. promised to “strengthen cooperation with South Korea to ensure the timely and effective deployment and operation of strategic assets in the region,” and now the new operation plan can be applied to South Korea-U.S. joint exercises and regularized.

North Korea immediately launched “retaliatory provocations.” On the same day, North Korea fired a ballistic missile presumed to be an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) into the East Sea. Following the launch of a short-range ballistic missile near Pyongyang the previous night, North Korea carried out provocations for two consecutive days.

The Joint Chiefs of Staff announced, “At around 8:24 a.m. today, one long-range ballistic missile presumed to have been launched from the Pyongyang area toward the East Sea was detected.” This is the fifth ICBM launch by North Korea this year, about five months after the test launch of the new solid-fuel ICBM Hwasong-18 on July 12. It appears to be a show of force through an ICBM provocation capable of directly striking the U.S., in response to the agreement to conduct nuclear operation exercises addressing North Korea’s nuclear and missile threats in next year’s joint exercises.

The missile North Korea fired the previous night flew about 570 km before falling into the sea. Considering the missile’s flight distance, there is an interpretation that it was aimed at the U.S. nuclear-powered submarine USS Missouri (SSN-780), which docked at the Busan Naval Base the previous day. The straight-line distance from Pyongyang Sunan Airport to Busan is about 550 km. The North Korean Ministry of Defense previously criticized the results of the 2nd NCG meeting as a “blatant declaration of nuclear confrontation.”

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.