"Could Erupt at Any Time"… Rumors Stir Over Explosion in Japan's Mt. Fuji Confidential Document

Japanese Media Releases Confidential Disaster Prevention Meeting Documents
Guidelines Advise Moving on Foot Instead of by Vehicle in Case of Explosion

Mount Fuji in Japan has been analyzed to be in a state where an eruption would not be surprising after more than 300 years since its last eruption. It was also warned that during an eruption, it could become difficult to deliver supplies to residents amounting to 60% of the population in the Tokyo metropolitan area.

On the 22nd, Mainichi Shimbun obtained internal Japanese government documents regarding countermeasures for a Mount Fuji eruption and reported this.

(This photo is not directly related to the article) [Photo source=Pixabay]

According to the report, the "Mount Fuji Volcano Disaster Prevention Measures Council," which includes Japanese government officials and experts, held a closed meeting. They assumed a scenario where Mount Fuji would erupt multiple times like the 1707 Hoei eruption, with volcanic ash gradually falling over the Tokyo metropolitan area, including Tokyo, for two weeks, and discussed specific countermeasures.

Earlier in March, the Mount Fuji Volcano Disaster Prevention Measures Council fully revised the "Basic Evacuation Plan for Mount Fuji Volcano," which was originally established in 2014 in preparation for an eruption. This was a measure taken in awareness of the volcanic eruption risk. There was also an analysis that if Mount Fuji erupts, Tokyo city could be covered in volcanic ash within three hours.

According to government documents reported by Mainichi Shimbun, if roads become increasingly prohibited for passage due to volcanic ash fallout from the eruption, a situation could arise where supplies cannot be delivered to residents amounting to about 60% of the metropolitan population (approximately 44.33 million) by two weeks after the eruption. Additionally, the number of residents needing evacuation was estimated to be up to 26.7 million, and those who could be affected by power outages were estimated at about 36 million.

Japanese People Viewing Mount Fuji Japanese people are looking at Mount Fuji from the 'Azabudai Hills' observatory in Minato-gu, Tokyo, on the 21st.
[Photo by AFP Yonhap News]

In response, the newspaper emphasized that road restoration is the most important factor in the event of a volcanic eruption. If roads damaged by volcanic ash are not restored, it would be difficult not only for residents to evacuate but also to transport relief supplies. The current public-private council is expected to continue discussions on what means can be used to deliver supplies to areas where transportation by vehicle is impossible.

Experts have also expressed concerns about the actual possibility of an eruption of Mount Fuji. Professor Emeritus Toshitsugu Fujii of the University of Tokyo reportedly pointed out, "After three centuries since the last eruption, magma may have accumulated in Mount Fuji," adding that "it is in a state where an eruption would not be surprising at any time."

Previously, in April 2020, the council simulated that if city residents simultaneously evacuated to outside the city using their private vehicles, traffic congestion would occur, and it would take more than 100 hours to complete the evacuation.

Accordingly, authorities proposed measures to shorten the evacuation completion time to within 30 hours by staggering the start time of evacuation, such as advancing evacuation for the elderly and setting routes for each shelter to disperse traffic volume. The 1914 Taisho eruption, considered the largest eruption in Japan since the 20th century, occurred about 30 hours after an earthquake struck the city area.

Since a magnitude 4.8 earthquake occurred near Mount Fuji in December 2021, concerns about re-eruption have continued unabated in Japan. In particular, the government is paying close attention to the impact of volcanic ash as much as the damage caused by lava and pyroclastic flows (a mixture of volcanic ejecta and hot gases).

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.