NIS: North Korea May Conduct Nuclear Test and Satellite Launch Next Year

On the 23rd, the National Intelligence Service (NIS) stated, "North Korea's third reconnaissance satellite launch was successful and it is understood to have entered orbit." This information was reported during a closed meeting of the National Assembly Intelligence Committee, according to Yoo Sang-beom, the People Power Party's committee secretary, and Yoon Gun-young, the Democratic Party's committee secretary.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The NIS reported, "It is judged that Russia likely assisted North Korea's missile launch," explaining, "During the North Korea-Russia summit, Putin publicly expressed his willingness to support North Korea's missile program. After the summit, North Korea provided Russia with blueprints and data related to the first and second missile launches, and Russia shared the analysis results with North Korea." However, when asked if there was any specific confirmation beyond the evidence of Russian assistance, the NIS responded, "There is nothing specifically confirmed."

The NIS stated, "Analysis of debris recovered from the failed second reconnaissance satellite launch indicates that the satellite onboard at that time was a so-called reconnaissance satellite but not a valuable 'sub-meter' class satellite." It added, "Considering that the development of a new artificial satellite typically takes about three years, unless North Korea releases footage showing photos taken of Guam, it is currently not possible to assess their satellite capabilities."

Regarding North Korea's solid-fuel launch technology, the NIS reported, "It is understood that the intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) is still in the early stages of development." The NIS also stated, "There are no signs of an imminent seventh nuclear test by North Korea. No launch signs have been detected at Punggye-ri so far," adding, "However, a nuclear test is ultimately a matter decided by North Korea's supreme leader."

The NIS reported, "The possibility of a nuclear test in 2023 is not considered high. However, in 2024, depending on Kim Jong-un's decision, there is a possibility of a nuclear test at any time," and added, "While additional reconnaissance satellite launches within this year seem difficult, the possibility of a launch next year remains open."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.