[Global Focus] Taiwan Presidential Election Opposition Unification Faces Difficulties, Complex US-China Proxy War Calculations

About Two Months Until the Presidential Election
Tight Disagreement Over Opposition Candidate Unification
China Supports Pro-China Kuomintang
US Hopes for Democratic Progressive Party's Return to Power
Kuomintang's Hou Considers Centrist Voters
If Elected, US-China Conflict May Temporarily Ease

With the Taiwanese presidential election just over two months away, the opposition parties have yet to narrow their differences over candidate unification. Since the decision on unification is a crucial variable that could determine the outcome of the presidential election, some analysts say the election landscape is shrouded in uncertainty.

In particular, this election carries the character of a proxy war reflecting the intense conflict between the United States and China, complicating the calculations of both countries. As the US-China tensions surrounding Taiwan deepen, China favors the pro-China Kuomintang (KMT), while the US quietly hopes for the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) to maintain power. However, neither side can afford to watch passively. Depending on the opposition’s candidate unification and the subsequent election results, the influence of foreign powers around Taiwan is expected to shift.

Unstable Unification... Election Outlook Becomes Harder to Predict

The second opposition party, the Taiwan People's Party (TPP), hinted on the 18th at the possibility of a breakdown in presidential candidate unification, stating that "the two parties have different perceptions regarding the acceptance of the poll margin of error."

On the 16th, the TPP agreed with the main opposition party, the KMT, to unify candidates to achieve a regime change and then form a coalition government. Initially, the KMT and TPP had respectively confirmed Hou You-yi, mayor of New Taipei City, and Ko Wen-je, former mayor of Taipei, as their presidential candidates. However, both candidates trailed behind the DPP candidate, current Vice President Lai Ching-te, in opinion polls. Consequently, the two parties decided on the 18th to announce a unified candidate based on the polls.

KMT candidate Hou You-yi (second from left) and People's Party candidate Ke Wen-je (first from right), both running in the Taiwan presidential election, joined hands with former President Ma Ying-jeou (second from right) after agreeing to unify their candidacies on the 15th. However, the agreement fell through due to differences between the two sides. [Image source=AFP Yonhap News]

However, their positions on the margin of error diverged. The KMT viewed the margin of error as ±3 percentage points, while the TPP insisted it should be ±1.5 percentage points, opposing the KMT’s stance. They explained that using the ±3 percentage points method results in a 6 percentage point margin, which is statistically contentious.

Additionally, the TPP argued that three out of nine polls had large margins of error and should be excluded. The KMT, however, refused to exclude these three polls, insisting they be included in the results. Among the remaining six polls, one showed Ko ahead and one showed Hou leading. The TPP claims that calculating the margin of error as ±1.5 percentage points according to their standard results in a 3-3 tie in support between the two candidates.

Opposition unification could be a major factor shaking up the current election landscape, where incumbent DPP candidate Lai is leading. Taiwan’s presidential election on January 13 next year is thus plunging into turmoil. According to a poll conducted by Taiwanese internet media ‘CNEWS Hui Liu News Network’ on the 10th and 11th, Lai led with 30.8% support, ahead of Ko at 26.0%, Hou at 18.0%, and independent candidate Guo Tai-ming at 9.3%. However, if the KMT and TPP field a unified candidate, that candidate is projected to surpass Lai in the election.

Major foreign media have predicted the success of unification, expecting Hou to be nominated as the presidential candidate and the DPP to lose the election. Before unification, Lai was expected to benefit from the opposition vote split, but once a unified candidate is selected, it is believed that the opposition candidate would be unbeatable.

Public opinion has also shown negative reactions toward the DPP due to the economic downturn, strengthening forecasts that the ruling party’s re-election will be difficult. According to a poll released last month by the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation, 59% of respondents said they do not support the DPP’s re-election or securing a legislative majority next year.

The official deadline for candidate registration in this election is the 24th, and the opposition must succeed in producing a unified candidate by then.

If KMT Wins, US-China Conflict May Temporarily Ease... China’s Goal of Unification Remains Unchanged

As opposition unification hits a wall, the calculations of the US and China regarding the Taiwan election have become more complicated. China fears that if the pro-US DPP retains power, American influence in Taiwan will expand. From China’s perspective, Taiwan is a region where unity must be strengthened to uphold the core value of ‘One China.’ For this reason, China prefers the pro-China KMT candidate to win the election over the strongly pro-US DPP. Hou acknowledges China’s power and advocates economic cooperation, having accepted the ‘1992 Consensus’ which recognizes One China.

U.S. President Joe Biden (left) and Chinese President Xi Jinping (right)

However, Hou is cautious about being perceived as too pro-China, mindful of centrist voters. Aside from his tenure as New Taipei City mayor, he lacks notable political experience and is considered a candidate with a relatively weaker KMT identity. Conscious of this, Hou has targeted centrist voters and even visited the US in September during the Overseas Chinese Annual Conference. Bloomberg predicts that if Hou wins, he will likely maintain the status quo in cross-strait relations rather than tilt excessively toward China.

The US also needs to bring Taiwan into its sphere of influence to counter China. If the pro-China KMT comes to power, it could disrupt the US plan to secure a semiconductor supply chain centered on Western countries. Therefore, US congressional leaders support the pro-US DPP regardless of party lines. President Biden, during the US-China summit on the 15th, urged President Xi Jinping to “respect Taiwan’s electoral process,” sharply criticizing China’s alleged interference in Taiwan’s election.

Some analysts believe that considering party colors and candidate tendencies, Hou’s victory would temporarily ease US-China tensions surrounding Taiwan. Bloomberg explains, “The KMT recognizes China’s core value of One China and is China’s preferred negotiation partner,” but adds, “The KMT is also aware of public opinion favoring peace and will strive to maintain ambiguous relations with China.”

Conversely, if DPP’s Lai wins, tensions between the US and China are expected to escalate in Taiwan. Bloomberg notes, “China refuses diplomatic relations with the DPP, which advocates Taiwan’s sovereignty. In this context, if the DPP retains power, the US will likely use the DPP as a partner to counter China.”

However, from a long-term perspective, some analysts argue that this election will not significantly affect the essence of cross-strait relations. Regardless of who wins, China is expected to continue pursuing Taiwan’s unification. The US-based think tank, the Institute for Peace Research, forecasts, “No matter who wins, China does not expect long-term changes in cross-strait relations. Even if KMT leaders communicate more openly with China, ultimately China desires Taiwan’s unification and will pressure Taiwanese people to choose peaceful unification over war.”

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.