US Faces Worsening Doctor Shortage... "Impact of Medical School Training System Structure"
The Economist Cites Data from the American Medical Association
"124,000 Doctors Will Be Short in the Next 10 Years"
Medical School Quotas Reduced in the 1980s, with 8 Years of University Only
As the government is pushing to expand medical school quotas to address the medical vacuum, an analysis has emerged pointing to structural problems in the medical school system as one of the reasons why the United States is expected to face a shortage of over 100,000 doctors in the next decade.
The British weekly The Economist reported on the 31st of last month (local time), citing the American Association of Medical Colleges (AAMC), that up to 124,000 doctors will be lacking in the U.S. within the next 10 years. It pointed out that while medical demand is rapidly increasing due to aging, the number of doctors entering the frontline of healthcare is not keeping pace.
According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the number of doctors per 1,000 people in the U.S. was 2.67 in 2021, similar to South Korea's 2.56. Among 37 countries, the U.S. ranks 28th, and South Korea ranks 30th, just behind Japan. Among OECD countries, Austria has the highest number of doctors per 1,000 people (5.5), while Indonesia has the lowest (0.7).
The Economist reported that, broadly speaking, the profession of being a doctor remains very popular in the U.S., but retirements and career changes are increasing. According to the report, the average annual salary of doctors in the U.S. is $350,000 (approximately 480 million KRW), which is a high level. The medical school application rate in the U.S. also exceeds 200%, with more than half of applicants unable to gain admission due to high competition.
However, more than two out of five current U.S. doctors are expected to retire within the next 10 years after turning 65. Additionally, according to an analysis by the nonprofit Peterson-KFF, the retirement rate of healthcare workers has increased by 30% since COVID-19, which is double the rate of general workers.
The Economist also mentioned that the structural problems of the medical school system that trains doctors are cited as a reason for this doctor shortage in the U.S. The media pointed out that "the supply of medical personnel has been artificially reduced due to a 'mismanaged' training system."
To become a doctor in the U.S., one must complete 4 years of undergraduate studies plus an additional 4 years of medical school, totaling 8 years. Considering that in other major countries, university education lasts about 6 years in total, The Economist explained that it takes about 2 years longer. Afterward, the residency period takes about 3 to 7 years, so from university admission to becoming a doctor, it takes a total of 10 to 15 years. During this process, many give up on becoming doctors.
Some also argue that in the 1980s, the U.S. anticipated an excessive number of doctors, leading to reductions in medical school quotas and restrictions on the entry of foreign medical graduates, which contributed to the current shortage. The Economist reported that over the past 25 years, the U.S. population has increased by 70 million and medical school applicants have greatly increased, but medical school admission quotas have not significantly expanded. In the late 1990s, federal government funding for medical schools was also reduced, which reportedly increased the financial burden on hospitals in the doctor training process.
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The Economist added that although clinical nurses, physician assistants, and doctors trained overseas who can perform limited medical duties are active in the U.S., there is still a shortage of doctors.
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