Following Yoo Seung-min and Lee Jun-seok, Yoon Seok-yeol's New Party Rumors... Is the Ruling Party About to 'Decision to Break Up'?

Lee Jun-seok, Yoo Seung-min Mention 'December Decision'
Speculation on Presidential-Centered New Party Formation...
Political Circles Question Success Probability

Speculation about the formation of a new party is mounting within the ruling camp. Following former lawmaker Yoo Seung-min and former party leader Lee Jun-seok, both non-mainstream members of the People Power Party, hinting at the 'option of leaving the party and forming a new one,' the possibility of a 'Yoon Seok-yeol new party' is also being raised. The ruling party suffered a crushing defeat in the by-election for the mayor of Gangseo District in Seoul, confirming the harsh public sentiment, which has heightened the sense of crisis that it will be difficult to contest next year's general election under the banner of the People Power Party. Political circles expect December this year to be a turning point for the new party formation speculation. However, there remain significant question marks about whether this will actually lead to the formation of a new party and the chances of success for these new parties.

December Turning Point?… Yoo Seung-min and Lee Jun-seok Mention 'Decision'

Yoo Seung-min, a presidential primary candidate of the People Power Party, is having a meeting with party leader Lee Jun-seok at the National Assembly on the 17th. Photo by Yoon Dong-joo doso7@

On the 19th, former lawmaker Yoo appeared on MBC Radio and said, "I believe that by December, it will be decided whether President Yoon or the People Power Party can truly make proper changes," adding, "I think I must make my decision to leave by December." Earlier, on the 17th, Yoo also said on CBS Radio, "By December, I will decide whether to leave or stay," and mentioned, "Forming a new party is always an open option and a last resort."

Former party leader Lee was also engulfed in speculation about leaving the party and forming a new one after demanding a full overhaul of state affairs directed at President Yoon during his tearful press conference on the 16th. Although Lee drew a line at a debate the day before by saying, "I have not decided to part ways with the party," the speculation about Lee Jun-seok's new party is gaining weight given the difficulty in restoring relations with the pro-Yoon (pro-Yoon Seok-yeol) mainstream faction within the party.

Kim Min-su, spokesperson for the People Power Party, appeared on MBN in the morning and said, "(If Lee leaves the party) I believe the party's approval rating will increase by 3 to 4 percent in the long term." In response, Lee immediately wrote on Facebook, "If you are the party's spokesperson, you should know the party's position. If you analyze that the party's approval rating will rise by 3 to 4 percent if I leave, immediately expel me to raise the party's approval rating."

There is also speculation about a new party centered around President Yoon. Shin Pyung, a lawyer known as President Yoon's mentor, said on CBS Radio the day before, "President Yoon is a person with great ability and leadership," adding, "Judging from this, I believe it is certain that he will attempt to boldly break through the encirclement around him. Forming a new party could certainly be one of the methods he chooses."

New Party Formation Flood Among Past Presidents

The background to the intensifying speculation about new party formation within the ruling camp is the complete defeat in the Gangseo District mayoral by-election. As the 'capital region crisis theory,' which had been steadily raised within the party, was confirmed in an election held six months before next year's general election, it is interpreted that a 'each for themselves' movement has begun. Typically, in political circles, party reorganization including new party formation has occurred as a result of power struggles over general election nominations, but successful cases of new parties have been rare. For this reason, it was expected that the mainstream and non-mainstream factions within the party would fiercely compete for nomination control this time as well.

However, after the defeat in the Gangseo District mayoral by-election, concerns grew inside and outside the party that it would be difficult to win next year's general election under the 'People Power' banner, leading to a series of new party formation rumors.

In particular, there is precedent for forming a president-led new party ahead of a general election. President Kim Young-sam's New Korea Party, President Kim Dae-jung's Millennium Democratic Party, and President Roh Moo-hyun's Uri Party were each formed shortly before general elections.

The fact that there is sufficient time until next year's general election to form a new party is also fueling public opinion. Political consultant Yoo Seung-chan said on YTN Radio the day before, in response to the question, "Is 100 days enough time to form a new party?" "New parties are usually formed in earnest in January," adding, "Even the People Party was formed in February."

Question Marks Over New Party's Chances of Success

Although speculation about new party formation continues daily around party leaders and presidential candidate-level figures, there are forecasts inside and outside the party that the success of a new party cannot be guaranteed.

A re-elected lawmaker of the People Power Party said, "From the public's perspective, various movements are emerging because big changes are necessary amid instability," but added, "It seems difficult for the two-party system to break." He continued, "Is there a chance for a new party to succeed? Politics is about bringing in a support base group, but the moderate middle class in the capital region is not a stable group."

Professor Shin Yul of Myongji University's Department of Political Science and Diplomacy said that compared to precedents, the possibility of a president's new party winning is low. "In the cases of DJ (Kim Dae-jung) and YS (Kim Young-sam), they were regional leaders with a solid support base, so new parties were possible. President Roh Moo-hyun succeeded because of the backlash against impeachment," he said, adding, "Is there such a factor now? There is no regional base now, and the approval rating for state affairs is not that high, so I am skeptical about whether new party formation is possible."

He said that if former leader Lee and former lawmaker Yoo form a new party, the environment would be slightly better than recent new parties. Professor Shin explained, "They are popular figures and have a certain level of fandom, but it is difficult to say they have a definite one. It is a slightly better environment than other new parties."

On the other hand, there is also an argument that a president-led new party would be superior in terms of competitiveness in the general election compared to the current People Power Party. Political commentator Park Sang-byeong said, "If you say you can win next year's general election with the current People Power Party, there is no need to form a new party, but you cannot win. They have not even nurtured talent," adding, "However, the condition is that the president's approval rating must be high. Only then can internal opposition be dispelled."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.