Northeast Asian Airlines Seeking Large Aircraft... Over Twice the Global Average

Boeing Reveals 20-Year Commercial Aircraft Market Forecast

In the Northeast Asia region, demand for new aircraft, especially large aircraft, is expected to increase rapidly due to the growing passenger demand on long-haul routes.

David Schulte, Boeing's Commercial Airplanes Asia-Pacific Marketing Director, said at a briefing on the 16th, "As international flights recover to pre-pandemic levels, Northeast Asia will continue to serve transpacific routes to North America amid overall growth in the Asia-Pacific region," adding, "We expect steady demand for wide-body aircraft for both long- and short-haul routes."

Dave Schulte, Head of Commercial Airplanes Marketing for the Asia-Pacific region at Boeing, is giving a presentation on the commercial aircraft market outlook at a Boeing press briefing held on the morning of the 16th at the Conrad Hotel in Yeouido, Seoul.

Boeing, the world's largest aircraft manufacturer, regularly releases market forecasts for the next 20 years. According to the forecast released that day, approximately 42,595 new aircraft will be needed worldwide by 2042. Of these, more than three-quarters, about 32,420, are expected to be relatively smaller single-aisle (narrow-body) aircraft. Large wide-body aircraft account for about 17% (7,440 units).

The Asia-Pacific region is expected to require about 8,985 aircraft, roughly 21% of the total. Among these, Northeast Asia?including South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan?accounts for 1,350 units. Notably, wide-body aircraft in Northeast Asia make up 520 units, representing 38% of the total, which is more than twice the global average. Narrow-body aircraft are expected to be about 790 units, or approximately 58%, according to the company.

Globally, passenger demand is increasing mainly among low-cost carriers (LCCs), which typically require smaller aircraft. However, Boeing expects that in Northeast Asia, where many passengers use long-haul routes, there will be significant new orders for large aircraft. These routes connect North America, including the United States, with East Asia. Boeing's analysis of passenger transport demand showed that passengers traveling between the North American region and Southeast Asia account for 22% of the total passengers on this route.

In the mid to long term, aircraft demand is expected to grow far beyond economic growth rates. Analyzing the revenue passenger kilometers (RPKs) indicator, which measures passenger demand, last year’s figure was about 600 billion RPKs. This number is the product of the number of passengers transported and the distance traveled. Boeing expects this to increase more than threefold to around 2 trillion RPKs by 2042. During this period, economic growth is projected at about 70%, which is significantly lower.

Based on this forecast, the number of aircraft in the Northeast Asia region, which was about 1,100 last year, will increase to 1,675 by 2042. Even excluding replacement demand for aging aircraft, this represents a net increase of nearly 600 aircraft. Replacement demand for existing aircraft is also substantial. Schulte explained, "New aircraft coming out recently have about 20-25% better fuel efficiency," adding, "In Northeast Asia, nearly 60% of demand is for replacing existing aircraft."

Dave Schulte, Head of Commercial Airplanes Marketing for the Asia-Pacific region at Boeing, is giving a presentation on the commercial aircraft market outlook at a Boeing press briefing held on the morning of the 16th at the Conrad Hotel in Yeouido, Seoul.

Globally, Boeing and Airbus dominate about 90% of the commercial aircraft manufacturing market, effectively dividing it between them. Boeing holds an advantage in large aircraft. The company’s wide-body aircraft include various models such as the 787-9, 787-10, and 787-8, differing in size and purpose. The 787 series has been the best-selling wide-body aircraft, surpassing Boeing’s own 777 and Airbus’s A330. Worldwide, 55 airlines have ordered the 787 series more than twice, accounting for 45% of the market share. Considering Airbus’s A330neo and A350 hold about 13%, the 787 series is more than three times as popular.

To reduce carbon emissions, Boeing plans to increase the use of lightweight materials in aircraft and expand the use of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF). Demand for aviation personnel, including pilots, technicians, cabin crew, and maintenance services, is also expected to grow. Schulte stated, "All aircraft currently in production are designed to operate without performance degradation even when using fuel blended with 50% biofuel," adding, "We aim to achieve 100% fuel transition by 2030."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.