Gangseo-gu Mayor Election, By-election Records 'Highest Early Voting Rate'... Which Party Will Benefit?

Gangseo District Mayor By-election Early Voting Rate Records 22.64%

The early voting rate for the by-election of the mayor of Gangseo District, Seoul, set a record as the highest ever in local elections and by-elections. Despite the early voting being conducted only within Gangseo District without any out-of-district voting, the turnout was notably high. There is also interest in whether this strong early voting enthusiasm will translate into the final voter turnout.

On the 7th, the National Election Commission announced that the final early voting rate, tallied by 6 p.m., was 22.64%. Out of a total of 500,603 registered voters, 113,313 participated. This turnout rate is high even compared to previous early voting rates.

The highest early voting rate in previous by-elections was during the April 7, 2021 by-elections for the Seoul mayor and Busan mayor, which recorded a turnout of 20.54%. Among local elections, the highest early voting rate was 20.62% during last year’s June 1 local elections.

Unusually high turnout is also confirmed in Gangseo District’s previous election records. During the 2021 Seoul mayor by-election, the turnout in this area was 21.45%. Additionally, last year’s local election turnout was only 20.43%. This time’s turnout is about 1 to 2 percentage points higher than previous early voting rates. Notably, unlike the two previous elections, this early voting was held only within the Gangseo District area, without allowing out-of-district voting, yet it still recorded a high turnout.

The Direction of Voter Sentiment in the Capital Region for Next Year’s General Election

Although the Gangseo District mayor by-election is for electing one local government head, both ruling and opposition parties have launched all-out efforts because it offers a glimpse into voter sentiment in the capital region for next year’s general election. The election results are expected to cause a significant divergence in fortunes between the ruling and opposition parties. In the last local election, Kim Tae-woo, the People Power Party candidate (current candidate), won with 51.3%, beating Kim Seung-hyun, the Democratic Party candidate at the time, by 3.2 percentage points. However, in the 5th to 7th local elections, the Democratic Party won the Gangseo District mayoral elections by margins ranging from 9.8 to 35.8 percentage points. Although the recent trend has shifted, it remains a district where the Democratic Party is dominant. In fact, all three members of the National Assembly from this area are Democratic Party lawmakers.

On the 6th, the early voting day for the by-election of the Gangseo District Mayor, residents visiting the early voting station set up at Banghwa 1-dong Community Center in Gangseo-gu, Seoul, are moving to cast their votes. Photo by Jinhyung Kang aymsdream@

For the ruling party, winning the Gangseo District mayoral election would raise hopes of reclaiming the capital region in next year’s general election, following the presidential and local elections. Conversely, if the opposition wins this election, it would solidify the leadership of Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party and confirm the opposition’s ability to defend the capital region in next year’s general election. The unusually high turnout appears to reflect a total mobilization of both parties’ support bases. Depending on the election outcome, the losing side is likely to face severe internal strife. For the ruling party, responsibility could be attributed to President Yoon Seok-youl, who pardoned candidate Kim and opened the way for his candidacy in the by-election, raising accountability issues. For the opposition, the leadership of Lee, which had stabilized after the rejection of an arrest warrant, could be shaken.

Who Benefits from the High Early Voting Rate?

There is also interest in whether the high early voting rate will lead to a high final turnout. In the 2021 Seoul mayor by-election, the final turnout in Gangseo District was 51.7%, and last year’s local election final turnout was 56.4%. Given that by-elections are held on non-holidays, the final turnout is expected to fall short of local elections, but attention is focused on whether it can approach the 50% range.

In political circles, it is predicted that a high turnout in this election would favor the opposition, while a low turnout would benefit the ruling party. On the 25th of last month, Hong Joon-pyo, mayor of Daegu, stated on social media (SNS), "If early voting reaches the 20% range, that favors the opposition, and if turnout is low, that gives hope to the ruling party." He added, "The camp that loses the Gangseo District mayor by-election will face a megaton-level shock," emphasizing, "This is not a simple by-election but an important battle to preview the political climate for next year’s general election in the capital region."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.