"Even with 3 Billion People, Can't Fill All Empty Houses" China Real Estate Bubble Theory Rekindled

Former Deputy Director of National Statistical Office Claims
"Current Population Cannot Fully Fill It"

In China, which is experiencing a real estate crisis, there are claims that the problem of housing oversupply may be more severe than expected. It is pointed out that even mobilizing the entire population of 1.4 billion people in China would not be enough to fill the vacant homes within the country.

According to CNN and other media on the 24th (local time), He Qing (81), a former deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics of China, attended a real estate-related forum held the previous day in Dunguan City, Guangdong Province, southern China.

On this day, He Qing unusually criticized the authorities' housing policies. He claimed, "Even China's population of 1.4 billion is not enough to fill all the vacant apartments scattered across the country."

Apartment complex in Tianjin, China.
[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

Regarding the question of how many vacant homes currently exist in China, he said, "Experts present different numbers, but some extreme estimates say that the current vacant homes could accommodate 3 billion people."

He added, "This estimate might be somewhat exaggerated," but firmly stated, "It is probably impossible to fill them with the current total population of 1.4 billion."

He Qing's remarks contrast with the official stance of the Chinese authorities on the 19th. On that day, Mao Ning, spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, emphasized at a press conference, "There are many predictions about the collapse of the Chinese economy, but these are exaggerated," and stressed, "The Chinese economy remains strong and sufficiently vibrant."

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, as of the end of last month, the total floor area of unsold homes in China was 648 million square meters. Based on the typical housing size of 90 square meters, this corresponds to about 7.2 million households.

The Chinese real estate market still faces dark clouds. Earlier, one of China's three major real estate developers, Country Garden Holdings (Biguoyuan), extinguished an urgent fire by extending the maturity of 3.9 billion yuan (approximately 700 billion won) worth of yuan-denominated corporate bonds by three years through a creditor vote.

However, since recording the largest loss in history in the first half of this year, Country Garden is still expected to possibly fall into default, and investor sentiment has frozen, making it difficult for other developers to attract new investments.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has decided to lower mortgage interest rates for first-time homebuyers starting from the 25th to revive the sluggish real estate market.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.