Will Kim Jong-un Meet Putin... Attention on Whether a North Korea-Russia Summit Will Take Place

Interests Align... Possible Exchange of Shells for Food
Eastern Economic Forum Likely to Be Held on 11-12

As expectations rise for a summit between North Korea and Russia, the international community is on high alert. Russia may provide weapons for its war effort in Ukraine, while North Korea could receive nuclear missile-related technology or food in return. The two countries have shown close cooperation, including a promise to expand military cooperation last July.

The reason the potential North Korea-Russia summit is drawing attention is the possibility of a weapons deal between the two sides. Russia could receive weapons such as artillery shells needed for the Ukraine war, while North Korea might obtain defense and military technologies related to satellites, nuclear weapons, and missiles, or food supplies. President Putin already dispatched Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu to North Korea last July to promise expanded military cooperation.

If the summit takes place, the date is likely to be around the 11th or 12th. President Putin will visit Vladivostok on the 11th and 12th to attend the Eastern Economic Forum. Therefore, if the North Korea-Russia summit is realized, it is highly likely to occur during these two days, although it could also be held at a third location outside the forum.

On April 26, 2019, Kim Jong-un, Chairman of the State Affairs Commission of North Korea, is taking a commemorative photo with Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, before their meeting.
[Photo by Yonhap News]

Experts believe the summit is highly likely because the interests of both countries align.

Yang Wook, a research fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, said on SBS Radio's "Kim Taehyun's Political Show," "Given the atmosphere, I think a summit could happen. Looking at the flow and the last time Defense Minister Shoigu visited North Korea, it certainly means that military cooperation between Russia and North Korea is being formalized. However, Russia will have its own calculations about whether to formalize this relationship at the summit level, and North Korea will need to offer something beyond that."

Park Won-gon, a professor at Ewha Womans University’s Graduate School of North Korean Studies, said, "Looking at precedents, it does not seem easy," citing two reasons. On SBS Radio, he said, "All of North Korea’s events, especially those involving Kim Jong-un, are called 'No. 1 events,' and all movements are thoroughly concealed. But now there are clear reports about taking the Taeyang-ho, the route, and the meeting time. There is skepticism about whether this will actually be carried out."

He added, "Russia is also burdened by what the U.S. calls 'cognitive warfare.' It means 'We are watching you all, so don’t do it.' Last year, when Russia was fully prepared to invade Ukraine, the White House specified February 14 as the date, but Russia did not invade then and instead did so on the 24th, ten days later. If Kim Jong-un goes and meets Putin this time, it would be fully visible to the U.S.," he pointed out.

Nonetheless, he said, "Looking at North Korea’s recent moves, they have become very bold," and the possibility of a summit cannot be completely ruled out. He noted, "Last year in the second half, North Korea fired missiles during the South Korea-U.S. joint military exercises for the first time, and they did so again during the first and second halves of this year’s joint exercises."

Kim Yong-hyun, a professor in the Department of North Korean Studies at Dongguk University, said, "The North Korea-Russia summit is likely because it is mutually necessary." On BBS Radio's "Jeon Young-shin's Morning Journal," he explained, "For Russia, the Ukraine war has been going on for a very long time, and there is a need for conventional artillery shells and other weapon systems. North Korea wants to receive food and advanced technologies related to submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM) and intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM). There is clearly an alignment of interests."

Regarding the actual possibility of a weapons deal between the two countries, he said, "Due to UN sanctions, it is officially impossible for North Korea to export weapons. However, unofficially, there is a possibility that North Korea and Russia could exchange weapons."

Professor Kim added, "From Russia’s perspective, to put it simply, during the Ukraine war, it is not the time to be picky about 'cold or hot rice.' Even if there is some international criticism, Russia might be willing to receive weapons from North Korea."

He continued, "From North Korea’s side, we understand that the food situation is quite poor. Since Russia is a food-exporting country, the possibility of North Korea receiving food from Russia and exchanging goods is why this summit is attracting attention."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.