Kim Jong-un in Crisis Searching for a 'Scapegoat'... Will North Korea Face a Purge Storm?

The Common Flood Site Sparks Fury at the "Geondalbaengi Cabinet"
North Korea's Supreme People's Assembly This Month... Premier Cabinet Dismissal Expected
Kim Jong-un's 'Infallibility of the Leader' Tarnished by Economic Collapse
"Like Kim Jong-il, Scapegoating... Intentional Avoidance of Responsibility"

In the early days of his rule, North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un promised, "I will never again tighten the belts of the people." However, there are observations that he is now looking for scapegoats to blame for the economic crisis. Especially since he has failed to stabilize rice prices in the jangmadang (market), the repeated missile provocations, military drills, and parades are seen as evidence that he is facing a 'leadership crisis' severe enough to forcefully divert the people's attention.

According to reports from North Korean state media on the 1st, the North Korean authorities will convene the Supreme People's Assembly in Pyongyang on the 26th. This body corresponds to our National Assembly, and the North announced that 'organizational matters' will be discussed at this meeting. There is speculation about a cabinet reshuffle, including the dismissal of Premier Kim Tok-hun, who was recently reprimanded by Chairman Kim for "the gangster-like cabinet ruining the national economic projects."

Why Did Kim Jong-un Get So Furious Over Such a Common Flood?

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un inspecting the restoration site of Anseok Reclaimed Land at the Reclaimed Land Construction General Enterprise in South Pyongan Province

Earlier, on the 21st of last month, Chairman Kim visited the Pyongannam-do region, which experienced large-scale flooding, and harshly criticized Premier Kim Tok-hun. Despite flooding being common during the rainy season in North Korea due to poor infrastructure, he blamed the cabinet's irresponsibility. He even staged a scene where he personally entered a flooded rice paddy with water up to his thighs. This reprimand was openly published without censorship in the Rodong Sinmun, which the residents read.

What is noteworthy is that Chairman Kim ordered, "Identify the responsible agencies and individuals, and strictly punish them both politically and legally." The phrase 'punish politically and legally' is interpreted as the highest level of punishment in North Korea. This expression, used during the early days of Kim Jong-un's rule when massive purges caused a 'bloodbath,' has reappeared unusually after nearly ten years.

Kim Jong-il, Chairman of the National Defense Commission of North Korea at the time in 2010 (left), and Kim Jong-un, who was then the successor

Senior Research Fellow Cho Han-bum of the Institute for Unification Studies explained, "In North Korea, 'political and legal punishment' implies the highest level of discipline, including execution. A North Korean document from June 2013 defines Ri Yong-ho, the Chief of the General Staff of the Korean People's Army who is known to have been executed, as someone 'handled politically and legally.' The same expression was used for Jeon Jeong-gap, former West Sea Fleet Commander, and Kim Chol, Deputy Minister of the Ministry of People's Armed Forces, who are also known to have been executed."

Cho pointed out that this 'search for scapegoats' is reminiscent of the 'Simhwa-jo Incident' during Kim Jong-il's era. When millions of people starved to death during the so-called 'Arduous March' starting in 1994, Kim Jong-il conducted large-scale purges. To divert the worsening public sentiment, he accused figures from his father Kim Il-sung's era of espionage and purged them. The number of targets is known to be at least 25,000, with over 3,000 deaths.

'The Crisis of the Leader Whose 'Infallibility' Has Collapsed... The Reason for Seeking Scapegoats

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un observing an underwater explosion test of a nuclear-powered unmanned underwater attack vehicle

Multiple sources close to North Korea report that Kim Jong-un's prestige is rapidly declining internally. Early in his rule, he promised, "I will never again tighten the belts of the people," but the economy has collapsed, and severe food shortages comparable to the 'Arduous March' have caused widespread starvation across the country. Kim Jong-un's fury is seen as evidence that the 'infallibility of the supreme leader' is under threat.

Above all, since the cabinet effectively holds no real power, this is evaluated as a revival of a reign of terror to evade responsibility. In North Korea, where all power is concentrated in the Workers' Party, the cabinet lacks the authority to revive the economy or lead national projects. Cho Han-bum noted, "Kim Jong-un, facing the worst crisis since taking power, seems to be trying to find a breakthrough through a reign of terror," calling it an "intentional strategy to evade responsibility."

New Solid-Fuel ICBM Presumed Missile Appears at North Korean Military Parade

Professor Park Won-gon of Ewha Womans University’s Department of North Korean Studies also supported the 'crisis theory.' He diagnosed that the repeated missile provocations, reconnaissance satellite relaunches, various large-scale drills, and military parades despite severe economic damage indicate a need to divert the people's attention. Professor Park analyzed, "This reflects a difficult situation where unity among the people is needed even at a burden, and they are taking reckless measures."

North Korea has already held two large-scale military parades this year alone and has announced a civilian military parade on September 9th to commemorate the 75th anniversary of the regime's founding. In February, it held the 75th anniversary parade of the founding of the Korean People's Army, and in July, the 70th anniversary parade of Victory Day (the day the armistice was signed). Holding three parades in one year is unprecedented since Kim Jong-un took power.

'Kim Tok-hun, From the Influential Figure Wearing a Leather Long Coat to Facing Purge Threat'

Kim Deok-hoon, Premier of North Korea's Cabinet, inspecting Daedong Farm in Hwangju County

However, some speculate that Premier Kim Tok-hun is still intact. He was mentioned twice in the Korean Central News Agency within ten days after 'Kim Jong-un's reprimand.' Reports included sending a congratulatory message to the Prime Minister of Thailand and attending a mine completion ceremony. However, the congratulatory message was not published in the Rodong Sinmun, which residents can see, and notably, no photos hinting at his whereabouts were attached.

Meanwhile, Kim Tok-hun was appointed premier at the relatively young age of 59 in 2020 within the North Korean cadre. He is one of the standing members of the Politburo of the Workers' Party Central Committee, considered the pinnacle of power, and was often seen wearing a leather long coat symbolizing his close ties to Kim Jong-un during field inspections. He was frequently called upon immediately after Kim Jong-un at major events, earning a reputation as the most influential among the influential.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.