[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] North Fired Only on the First Day of the Launch Window

Consecutive Satellite Launches on First Day of Launch Notification
Weather and Political Schedule Seem to Be Considered

Attention is focused on the timing of North Korea's military satellite launch. On the 22nd, North Korea set three maritime danger zones related to the satellite launch with the Japan Coast Guard and launched the projectile on the first day of the notification period. The same was true in May.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

North Korea notified Japan on the 22nd that it would launch a satellite between 0:00 on the 24th and midnight on the 31st. Then, on the first day of the notification period, it launched its second military reconnaissance satellite.

The same was true for the first attempt in May. North Korea notified the International Maritime Organization (IMO) that it planned to launch a satellite between 0:00 on May 31 and 0:00 on June 11, and on the first day, May 31, it launched the first military reconnaissance satellite, “Malligyong-1,” aboard the satellite carrier rocket “Chollima-1” from the Dongchang-ri launch site in Cholsan County, North Pyongan Province.

North Korea’s haste in launching this reconnaissance satellite appears to be due to weather rather than the meaning of a surprise launch. From the 23rd, heavy rain fell in North Korea’s Hwanghae Province and border areas. It is evaluated that they hurried because heavy rain was also forecast for the Dongchang-ri launch site in Cholsan County, North Pyongan Province, where the military reconnaissance satellite was expected to be launched.

Political scheduling also seems to have been considered. North Korea’s challenge to launch a military reconnaissance satellite again after three months is interpreted as a will to fire a celebratory shot ahead of the September 9 holiday. North Korea has been paying attention to preparations for the 75th anniversary of the September 9 holiday, including announcing a “civilian military parade.”

There is also analysis that this was due to awareness of August 25, “S?ngunjeol,” the day commemorating Kim Jong Il, the father of North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong Un. It is explained that from Kim’s perspective, he wanted to succeed in launching the reconnaissance satellite a day before S?ngunjeol to carry out his father’s legacy.

North Korea has also set the timing for the next reconnaissance satellite launch. On the same day, communications stated, “The National Aerospace Development Administration explained that the cause of the accident was not a major problem with the reliability or system of the stage engines, and after thoroughly investigating the cause and taking countermeasures, it expressed its position to carry out the third reconnaissance satellite launch in October.”

North Korea’s designation of October appears to be aimed at the “largest political holiday,” the anniversary of the founding of the Workers’ Party. North Korea designates and commemorates October 10, 1945, when President Kim Il Sung gave the keynote speech at the conference of party leaders and activists from the northwest five provinces, as the founding day of the party. Although this year is not a milestone anniversary divisible by 5 or 10, it is an important political schedule, so the launch is expected around the commemoration.

It is also significant that North Korea quickly admitted the launch failure this time as well, following May 31. There is analysis that this is an intention to instill in the international community the perception of a normal satellite launch. North Korea also admitted failure about two and a half hours after the first launch, stating, “The Chollima-1 lost thrust and fell into the West Sea due to abnormal ignition of the second stage engine after separation of the first stage during normal flight.”

However, the United Nations Security Council prohibits all launches of propulsion systems using ballistic missile technology through sanctions resolutions against North Korea, so reconnaissance satellite launches also violate Security Council sanctions resolutions. The propulsion systems used for satellite launches apply intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) technology.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.