China's Elderly Population to Increase by 100 Million Over the Next Decade

A statistical forecast has emerged indicating that China will see an increase of 10 million elderly people annually over the next decade. As the issues of low birth rates and aging population become more severe, calls are being made to establish a flexible social system.

On the 17th, Hong Kong's South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported this, citing the projection of Du Feng, Vice President of Renmin University of China. It is estimated that by 2050, due to accelerated aging, the elderly population in China will reach 520 million, accounting for 37.8% of the total population.

Elderly people are enjoying a performance in a city in Yunnan Province, China. (Photo by Kim Hyunjung)

According to official data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the population aged 65 and over was 207.8 million last year, making up 14.9% of the total population. In a recent interview with Tencent Finance, Vice President Du emphasized, "The next 10 years will be the most critical period for China to actively respond to the aging population."

Due to the impact of low birth rates and aging, China has lost the demographic dividend that had driven rapid growth, and pressure on pensions is increasing. In addition, authorities are struggling to revive sluggish economic momentum. China's elderly pensions became the primary source of income for the elderly, surpassing family support for the first time in 2020.

At the beginning of last year, the authorities announced plans to delay the retirement age to 60 for men, 55 for female white-collar workers, and 50 for female blue-collar workers, but the specific implementation timeline has not yet been finalized. Meanwhile, the urban employee pension fund faces a risk of depletion by 2035 due to the widening gap between contributions and expenditures. Vice President Du predicted that by 2030, China's elderly population will be comparable to the combined elderly populations of all developed countries.

He also argued that China should accelerate the integration of private pension insurance, strengthen medical security, and improve elderly care systems. According to the Ministry of Civil Affairs of China, as of the end of 2021, there were only 5.04 million elderly care beds available.

Furthermore, he emphasized that China should implement a flexible retirement system starting with high-demand professions such as teachers and doctors. He also suggested creating communities that mix elderly people with young children to address the issue of a declining young population.

Meanwhile, the World Health Organization (WHO) projected last October that by 2030, one in six people worldwide will be aged 60 or older, and by 2050, there will be 2.1 billion people aged 60 or older globally. According to World Bank (WB) data, last year, 29.1% of Japan's population was aged 65 or older, while the figures for the United States and Korea were 17%, and India was 7%.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.