[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] North Korea's Provocations Double in First Half of This Year... Tensions on the Korean Peninsula Peak Starting This Month

North Conducts Missile Provocations Since Joint Exercises
Missile Launches in First Half of This Year Double Last Year's
Likely to Intensify Amid ROK-US-Japan Summit and More

North Korea has carried out twice as many military provocations in the first half of this year compared to last year in response to the South Korea-U.S. joint military exercises. With the large-scale South Korea-U.S. joint exercise, 'Eulji Freedom Shield (UFC) Exercise,' scheduled to begin this month, and major diplomatic events such as the South Korea-U.S.-Japan summit, North Korea is expected to escalate its provocations, raising tensions on the Korean Peninsula.

According to the military on the 1st, South Korea and the U.S. will start the second half of this year’s exercises with a crisis management exercise (CMX) as a preliminary drill from the 15th, followed by the first phase from the 21st to the 25th, and the second phase from the 28th to the 31st. South Korea and the U.S. conduct the 'Freedom Shield (FS) Exercise' in the first half of the year and the 'Eulji Freedom Shield (UFS) Exercise' in the second half. Especially this year, marking the 70th anniversary of the South Korea-U.S. alliance and the armistice agreement, the largest-ever deployment of strategic assets is expected.

North Korea’s backlash is also expected to intensify. According to a compilation of text notifications from the Joint Chiefs of Staff, North Korea has been carrying out provocations such as missile launches centered around the South Korea-U.S. joint exercises. Based on the first half of last year’s exercise period (April 18?28), North Korea fired 11 missiles (6 times) in the month before and after (from March to May). During the second half exercise period (August 22?September 1), it launched 6 missiles (3 times). This year, the number of provocations in the first half has increased. Centered on the exercise period (March 13?23), North Korea fired about 20 missiles (10 times), more than doubling the previous count.

During the UFS period, President Yoon Suk-yeol will hold a South Korea-U.S.-Japan summit with U.S. President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. This will be the first occasion for the three leaders to meet for a trilateral summit, and it is expected to create a new turning point for trilateral cooperation, including the 'regularization' of the South Korea-U.S.-Japan summit.

For this reason, North Korea is highly likely to respond by launching long-range missiles such as intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). On the occasion of the Victory Day parade on the 27th of last month, there were even speculations about possible technical cooperation on military reconnaissance satellites between North Korea and Russia. Therefore, there is a forecast that North Korea may re-launch a military reconnaissance satellite around the regime foundation day on the 9th of next month. The regime foundation day, considered one of North Korea’s biggest holidays, marks its 75th anniversary this year, a milestone year (a year divisible by 5 or 10). Hong Min, head of the North Korea Research Division at the Korea Institute for National Unification, said, "Depending on how much technical cooperation North Korea and Russia, who strengthened solidarity through the parade, will have in the weapons field, the threat level from North Korea in the second half of this year could change," adding, "North Korea may continue provocations by picking fights over this month’s South Korea-U.S.-Japan summit and South Korea-U.S. joint exercises, or it may link the re-launch of reconnaissance satellites with the 75th anniversary regime foundation day on September 9."

However, some speculate that since the Asian Games in Hangzhou, China, will open on the 23rd of next month and North Korea has officially confirmed its participation, provocations may be restrained after the regime foundation day. North Korea might shift its offensive strategy from 'military provocations' to 'diplomacy' from mid-next month out of consideration for China’s 'celebration.' This is also why there are expectations for North Korea-U.S. talks regarding the repatriation of Private Travis King, who voluntarily defected to North Korea. Kim Yong-hyun, director of the North Korea Studies Institute at Dongguk University, said, "While the case of Private King, who defected, is a topic that could change the regional dynamics, I am skeptical about whether it can shift the Korean Peninsula to a dialogue phase," adding, "The tense situation on the Korean Peninsula is expected to continue for the time being."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.