[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] Provocation Again Ahead of This Week's Jeonseongjeol?

Provocations Continue in Early Morning... Demonstration of Surprise Attack
Parade Movements in Pyongyang Ahead of 70th Victory Day Anniversary

North Korea's likelihood of additional provocations this week is increasing. In particular, with North Korea's defense minister mentioning the possibility of 'using nuclear weapons,' there is a growing chance that North Korea will carry out further provocations to showcase its nuclear delivery capabilities alongside a large-scale military parade on the 27th, which it claims as 'Victory Day' marking the 70th anniversary of the Korean Armistice Agreement.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

On the 22nd, as well as on the 19th, North Korea launched several long-range cruise missiles presumed to be 'North Korean versions of the Tomahawk' during the early morning hours. This came just two days after threatening that the arrival of the U.S. strategic nuclear submarine USS Kentucky (SSBN-773) at Busan Port constitutes a condition for the use of nuclear weapons. This is interpreted as an attempt to demonstrate the capability for surprise attacks during vulnerable time periods. The military assesses that North Korea has repeatedly chosen the early morning vulnerable hours to threaten surprise nuclear strikes.

The cruise missiles launched this time are believed to be about three to four Hwasal-1 or Hwasal-2 types, known as the 'North Korean Tomahawk.' Although the flight speed of these cruise missiles does not reach the speed of sound (approximately 1,224 km/h), they fly at ultra-low altitudes with trajectory changes, making detection and tracking by radar difficult. The range of Hwasal-1 and Hwasal-2 (up to 2,000 km) covers the entirety of South Korea and Japan.

Especially ahead of the Victory Day on the 27th (the day the Korean War Armistice Agreement was signed), a large-scale military parade along with military provocations is expected. North Korea has held large-scale events such as military parades on major anniversaries that are multiples of five years, such as the 5th and 10th anniversaries.

On the 21st, the Voice of America (VOA) reported that a large pontoon bridge was installed near Kim Il-sung Square in Pyongyang, suggesting preparations for a military parade. VOA stated that satellite images of Pyongyang taken on the 20th by the private satellite company Planet Labs showed two large pontoon bridges connecting Kim Il-sung Square and the opposite side of the Taedong River. These were not visible in images taken by the same satellite company on the 10th. When North Korea held a military parade in April last year, this pontoon bridge also appeared and was known to have fireworks and lighting facilities installed.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.