US CIA: "Xi Jinping Hesitant to Invade Taiwan, Not Confident in Forced Unification"

"Reasons for the Chinese Leadership's Concerns over the Ukraine War"

The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has analyzed that Chinese President Xi Jinping is unable to make a decision due to a lack of confidence in unification if he were to launch a military invasion of Taiwan.

William Burns, CIA Director, stated on the 20th (local time) during a discussion at the Aspen Security Forum held in Colorado, USA, regarding Xi's previous orders for an invasion of Taiwan, "It means to prepare, not that a conflict is imminent or inevitable," clarifying this point.

Earlier, the CIA revealed that President Xi has set the deadline for a military occupation of Taiwan as 2027. It is reported that Xi instructed the Chinese military to complete preparations for an attack on Taiwan by then.

He analyzed, "It seems that President Xi has not decided whether to invade Taiwan," adding, "This means that currently, President Xi and the Chinese military leadership are not confident that they can successfully carry out a full-scale invasion of Taiwan at a cost they can bear."

He particularly noted that the war in Ukraine is causing China to hesitate. Ukraine, which is militarily inferior, is successfully resisting Russia, and the U.S. and the West are also investing efforts to support Ukraine despite economic costs. Director Burns said, "I think all of this is causing the Chinese leadership to hesitate."

However, he also made it clear that "he does not underestimate President Xi's will to dominate Taiwan."

Regarding last month's rebellion by the Russian mercenary group Wagner, he described it as "the most direct attack on the Russian state and Vladimir Putin's 23-year rule," diagnosing that "it revealed some significant weaknesses in the system Putin has built." He also anticipated retaliation from President Putin. He said, "From my experience, Putin is an avenger," and added, "I would be surprised if Prigozhin escapes harsher punishment."

He stated that there are no imminent signs of Russia using nuclear weapons in the Ukraine war.

Director Burns emphasized regarding Ukraine's counteroffensive, "Attacking is much harder than defending, takes time, and advancing will not be easy," but also stressed, "Due to Russia's declining morale and leadership issues, Ukraine can make progress."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.