Yoon Records Largest Approval Rating Drop Since Inauguration... What Is the Background?

Gallup "Support Rates Decline Across Most Generations and Regions"
Potential Public Opinion Shift Following Japan's Nuclear Wastewater Discharge Confirmation

President Yoon Suk-yeol's approval rating for his administration has dropped sharply to the low 30% range, marking the largest decline since his inauguration. The polling agency Gallup, which conducted the survey, identified that respondents who had previously withheld judgment on the issue of the discharge of contaminated water from the Fukushima nuclear plant turned against the administration after observing the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report and the Korea-Japan summit. Additionally, controversy over the change in the terminus of the Seoul-Yangpyeong Expressway is also analyzed as having influenced public opinion.

According to Gallup on the 16th, in their regular survey released on the 14th (conducted from the 11th to 13th via telephone interviews with 1,001 adults aged 18 and over nationwide), President Yoon's approval rating fell 6 percentage points from the previous week to 32%. Negative evaluations of his administration increased by 3 percentage points to 57%.

A 6 percentage point drop in Gallup's weekly surveys is considered unusually large. Gallup explained, "This week's change (38% → 32%) is the largest weekly drop on record, second only to the one a year ago (late June 2022 43% → early July 37%)."

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Regarding the change in President Yoon's approval rating, Gallup analyzed, "It appears closely related to the release of the IAEA's final report last week confirming the ocean discharge of Fukushima nuclear plant contaminated water. The acceptance of this possibility as a given fact and intensified opposition attacks seem to have influenced politically indifferent groups and southern regions with a high proportion of marine and fisheries industries."

Notably, the approval rating decline was observed across most respondent demographics. The largest drops were among the politically indifferent, undecided voters, residents of Gwangju, Jeolla, Busan, Ulsan, Gyeongnam, and self-employed workers. This suggests that the political indifference group who had withheld judgment and the residents sensitive to the contaminated water issue turned against the administration.

The IAEA final report, a major turning point regarding the discharge of contaminated water, was released, and although President Yoon remained reserved on the issue, he showed a practically accepting stance at the Korea-Japan summit despite adding some additional conditions, which moved public opinion.

However, beyond the contaminated water controversy, there is also a view that the change in the terminus of the Seoul-Yangpyeong Expressway and the decision to scrap the project partially influenced the approval rating change.

Kim Bong-shin, CEO of Metavoice, commented on the Gallup poll, saying, "Following the Fukushima contaminated water issue, the Seoul-Yangpyeong Expressway issue emerged, causing the approval rating to drop. It was a case of bad news piling on bad news." He added, "The government and ruling party tried to counterattack by labeling it a Democratic Party gate, but it seems ineffective. The attempt to deflect the issue appears to have failed initially." Gallup's survey also reveals that the Seoul-Yangpyeong Expressway issue is acting as a negative factor. Among those who supported President Yoon, the main reason cited, 'eradication of corruption and bribery,' dropped by 3 percentage points compared to the previous survey, while among those with negative evaluations, 'Yangpyeong Expressway issue' (1%) was newly added as a reason for disapproval.

Regarding party support, there was little change between last week and this week. The People Power Party and the Democratic Party of Korea were both surveyed at 33% and 32%, respectively. The Justice Party rose by 1 percentage point to 5%.

For detailed survey methodology and results related to this poll, please refer to the website of the Central Election Survey Deliberation Commission.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.