[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] US Reconnaissance Aircraft Pretext... Possibility of SA-5 Missile Launch

North Claims "US Reconnaissance Aircraft Unauthorized Intrusion" for Second Consecutive Day
Possibility of Surface-to-Air Missile Provocation Targeting South

North Korea claims that U.S. reconnaissance aircraft have repeatedly violated its economic waters, drawing attention to the intent behind these actions.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Kim Yo-jong, Vice Director of the Workers' Party of Korea, stated on the 11th, "On the 10th, a U.S. Air Force strategic reconnaissance aircraft conducted unauthorized incursions eight times from 5:15 AM to 1:10 PM over the sea area 435 km east of Tongcheon, Gangwon Province, to 276 km southeast of Uljin, Gyeongsangbuk Province, above our economic waters in the East Sea of Korea, carrying out aerial reconnaissance activities." Kim's statement came about nine hours after an earlier one issued around 9 PM on the 10th.

Military experts analyze that North Korea's claim concerns the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), not territorial waters under international law, and the use of "Republic of Korea" instead of "South Korea" suggests the provocation is aimed at the South.

The EEZ extends 200 nautical miles from the baseline, differing from territorial waters which extend 12 nautical miles. Under international law, the EEZ is considered international waters where the right of innocent passage is generally recognized, making North Korea's claim of sovereignty infringement unreasonable. However, North Korea emphasizes that this area is defined by its own standards rather than international law, increasing the likelihood of provocations. Additionally, Kim Yo-jong's reference to the South as the "Republic of Korea" is unusual. Experts on North Korea interpret this as part of the two-state system context recently observed in North Korea's rhetoric.

Considering these points, it is interpreted that North Korea is escalating tensions and building justification for provocations ahead of the Armistice Day (the 27th), which it claims as Victory Day. The likely provocation involves surface-to-air missile launches targeting U.S. reconnaissance. Last November, an SA-5 missile launched from Sukchon, Pyongyang, flew approximately 290 km and for the first time landed south of the Northern Limit Line (NLL) in the East Sea. The SA-5 surface-to-air missile has a maximum range of 300 km, capable of reaching areas south of the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) including the Chungcheong region.

North Korea is known to have established a quadruple air defense system around Pyongyang to counter U.S.-South Korea combined air power. The surface-to-air missiles include approximately 40 SA-5 (Gammon, high altitude, max range 260-300 km), about 140 SA-3 (Goa, low to medium altitude, max range 13-35 km), and roughly 180 SA-2 (Guideline, medium to high altitude, max range 48 km) missiles.

There is a high possibility of provocations targeting U.S. reconnaissance aircraft. North Korea has previously provoked U.S. reconnaissance planes. In March 2003, North Korean fighter jets approached a U.S. RC-135 reconnaissance aircraft conducting surveillance over international waters in the East Sea, attempting to lure it into North Korean territory. Additionally, North Korea shot down a U.S. Navy EC-121 electronic reconnaissance aircraft in 1969 and a U.S. Army OH-58 helicopter in South Korea in 1994.

When the U.S. Navy EC-121 was shot down in 1969, President Richard Nixon deployed two aircraft carrier battle groups to the East Sea and urgently stationed F-4 fighter-bombers at U.S. bases in South Korea, even considering a nuclear strike against North Korea, but ultimately did not carry out retaliatory actions.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.