Approval Ratings at a Crossroads for Yoon, Focus on 'First Message' Regarding Contaminated Water Discharge (Comprehensive)

President Yoon Departs Today for NATO and Poland Visit
South Korea-Japan Summit... De Facto 'Contaminated Water' Talks
Changes in Second Half Government Operations Following Yoon's Remarks

President Yoon Suk-yeol will deliver his first message regarding Japan's discharge of contaminated water from the Fukushima nuclear power plant into the ocean. President Yoon, who will visit Lithuania and Poland for a 4-night, 6-day trip starting on the 10th, is scheduled to hold a summit with Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio during the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) meeting, where he will express his stance on the 'discharge of contaminated water.' Since the focus of government operations in the second half of the year is on domestic affairs, the level of President Yoon's remarks is expected to significantly influence not only his approval ratings but also the ruling and opposition parties' strategies for the general election.

On the day, President Yoon departed for Lithuania at 1 p.m. from Seongnam Seoul Airport aboard Air Force One, the presidential aircraft. President Yoon and First Lady Kim Keon-hee boarded Air Force One while being seen off by People Power Party floor leader Yoon Jae-ok, Vice Minister of the Ministry of the Interior and Safety Han Chang-seop, First Vice Minister of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Jang Ho-jin, Charg? d'affaires of the Embassy of Lithuania to Korea Asta Slavinskaite, Charg? d'affaires of the Embassy of Poland to Korea Arleta Brzozowska, Chief of Staff Kim Dae-gi, Senior Secretary for Political Affairs Lee Jin-bok, and the commander of the Air Force 15th Special Mission Flight Group.

President Yoon wore a dark navy suit with an orange tie. First Lady Kim wore a white dress with light pink shoes and carried an eco bag with a keyring that read 'BUSAN IS READY.' The eco bag she carried that day featured the logo of the eco-friendly campaign 'Bye Bye Plastic Campaign.'

[Image source=Yonhap News]

After attending the NATO summit in Lithuania from the 10th to the 12th, President Yoon will officially visit Poland from the 12th to the 14th before returning home. While the main goal of this trip is to secure economic benefits such as supply chains and new market development through visits to NATO and Poland, the entire nation's attention is focused on the Korea-Japan summit. It is expected that Prime Minister Kishida will seek understanding regarding Japan's plan to discharge contaminated water from Fukushima this summer during the summit.

At this meeting, President Yoon is expected to deliver a specific message regarding the discharge of contaminated water. The presidential office's position is that he will convey the government's basic stance of 'prioritizing the health and safety of the people,' but it is highly likely that Prime Minister Kishida will raise related issues such as the treatment and ocean discharge of contaminated water from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant and the import of Fukushima seafood all at once. Considering Japan's intention to reduce opposition by obtaining the consent of the closest neighboring country, South Korea, President Yoon will need to present clear and specific positions on each matter. A senior official from the presidential office explained, "The government will convey its stance on each issue based on prioritizing the safety of the people," adding, "The government's plan to monitor whether the implementation and inspection plans presented by the IAEA and the Japanese government are properly carried out will proceed as scheduled."

Earlier, the presidential office stated, "We respect the announcements made by the IAEA, a representative UN-affiliated international organization in the field of nuclear safety," but also declared that the ban on imports of Fukushima seafood will continue indefinitely until the public feels assured. Recognizing that the IAEA's safety verification of the Fukushima nuclear power plant contaminated water discharge and the import of Fukushima seafood are separate issues, the government has already begun monthly investigations at eight points in Japan's adjacent international waters and has significantly expanded the number of radiation monitoring points in the waters from 92 to 200.

However, there is also a possibility that Japan will exert strong pressure to resume seafood imports. This is why attention is focused on President Yoon's remarks at the summit. In fact, President Yoon's approval ratings have steadily risen, maintaining the high 30% to low 40% range in various polls. However, when examining the reasons for negative evaluations of President Yoon's job performance, the 'contaminated water issue' has the greatest impact. According to a Korea Gallup survey conducted on the 7th, the 'Fukushima contaminated water discharge issue' accounted for the largest share (17%) of reasons for negative evaluations of President Yoon's job performance. Consequently, depending on the tone of President Yoon's remarks, the scope of activities of the government and ruling party may also change. While President Yoon has been raising his approval ratings in the first half of the year through consecutive 'economic diplomacy' and messages aimed at 'breaking up vested interest cartels' to consolidate his support base, the message on contaminated water discharge could become a variable in future government operations.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

If President Yoon delivers a message expressing trust in the IAEA's announcements, the Democratic Party's offensive is expected to intensify further. On the 9th, during a meeting with Rafael Grossi, IAEA Director General, the Democratic Party strongly criticized the IAEA's comprehensive report on the 'safety assessment of Japan's Fukushima nuclear power plant contaminated water discharge,' claiming it was a Japan-biased verification. Moreover, a group of opposition lawmakers called the 'National Assembly Members' Group to Prevent Fukushima Nuclear Contaminated Water Ocean Dumping' has planned a 2-night, 3-day visit to Tokyo, Japan, starting on the 10th, with plans to hold a rally in front of Prime Minister Kishida's residence.

The presidential office interprets such opposition party actions as acts that go against trust-based diplomacy. A presidential office official said, "It is an act that harms national interests for an official opposition party of a government to deny and criticize scientific investigation results conducted by world experts," adding, "They should also consider their responsibility to pursue trust diplomacy as a member of the international community."

Meanwhile, the margin of error for the public opinion survey used in the above article is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For more details, please refer to the website of the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.