[Opinion] Population Policy, We Must Redefine the Future Society

Changes in population structure, represented by low birth rates, aging, and the influx of foreign populations, are significant structural changes that could fundamentally shake the foundation of South Korea's future. The Yoon Seok-yeol administration has also designated population issues as a major national agenda and newly launched the Low Birthrate and Aging Society Committee, chaired by the president. However, the "Tasks and Policy Directions for Low Birthrate and Aging Society" announced by the committee last March still focus primarily on alleviating low birth rates.

This policy direction lacks consideration and measures regarding the impact of the low birthrate phenomenon over the past 20 years and the ultra-low birthrate that will continue in the future. The effects of prolonged low birth rates are already being observed throughout our society. The decline in school-age population has led to the consolidation and closure of elementary, middle, high schools, and universities. The military is also facing an emergency due to a decrease in conscription resources. Soon, the shortage of the working-age population will become a serious issue.

Once population decline begins, it is difficult to reverse. Once population decline starts, it tends to continue for at least several decades to 100 years. Even if the birth rate improves somewhat, it takes a long time before it contributes to population growth. Even if the birth rate rebounds this year, it will take at least 20 years for this year's newborns to enter university or join the working-age population. The problem is that there are no visible measures on how our economic and social systems can adapt during this period. It is not a matter of temporarily boosting the birth rate and ending there.

Responses to the population structure changes brought by future low birth rates and aging must operate on two wheels. The first wheel is efforts to improve the world's lowest birth rate even slightly. These efforts are well represented by the strategies and key tasks presented by the Low Birthrate and Aging Society Committee this time. The second wheel is to redesign the economic and social system under the assumption that the trend of low birth rates and aging will continue for a long time.

There are two policy options for the long-term trend of low birth rates and aging. The first option is to more actively accept foreign labor. This approach aims to slow down the speed of low birth rates and aging and fill the shortage of the working-age population through the influx of foreign workers. However, in the absence of social infrastructure, a large influx of foreign workers may incur long-term costs such as social conflicts that outweigh short-term benefits, requiring a cautious approach.

The second option is to change the fundamental assumptions of our economic and social system. Until now, the basic premise of South Korea's economic and social system has been based on continuous population growth and economic expansion. A representative example is the pension system. Not only the pension system but also almost all systems including finance, welfare, labor, land, defense, and education are based on this premise.

The rapidly progressing population structure change currently underway is a massive environmental change that requires a fundamental transformation of the economic and social system rather than a simple strengthening or modification of existing policies. Therefore, policy authorities should not focus solely on raising the birth rate but should consider the future brought by population structure changes from a more comprehensive and long-term perspective.

Seoyongseok, Professor at KAIST Graduate School of Culture Technology and Future Strategy

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.