North Korea Fires ICBM Targeting 'South Korea-Japan Summit'... "Demonstrating Dominance on the Korean Peninsula"

North Korea Fires Suspected ICBM Long-Range Missile into East Sea
Response to ROK-US Joint Exercises, Targeting ROK-Japan Summit
"Expresses Confidence in Striking Japan and Guam from Korean Peninsula"

North Korea launched a missile presumed to be an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) on the 16th, the day a South Korea-Japan summit was scheduled. As South Korea-Japan relations enter a phase of improvement and signs of strengthened South Korea-US-Japan cooperation emerge, this is interpreted as an attempt to assert dominance over the situation on the Korean Peninsula. Unlike in the past when North Korea showed a subdued stance during joint South Korea-US military exercises, it is now expressing confidence in its ability to strike not only the Japanese mainland but also Guam, where a US Air Force base is located.

According to the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the military detected one long-range ballistic missile launched by North Korea from the Pyongyang Sunan area toward the East Sea at around 7:10 a.m. The missile, launched at a high angle, flew approximately 1,000 km before landing in the East Sea, a Joint Chiefs official explained.

New Solid ICBM Suspected Missile Appears at North Korea Military Parade [Image Source=Yonhap News]

This marks the sixth missile provocation this year, and the ICBM launch comes one month after the 'Hwasong-15' was launched at a high angle on the 18th of last month. At that time, the missile reached an altitude of about 5,700 km and flew approximately 900 km. The type of missile launched this time is currently being analyzed by South Korean and US intelligence authorities. It is presumed to be either the existing Hwasong-15 or Hwasong-17, but the possibility of it being a solid-fuel propelled ICBM that appeared at last month's military parade cannot be ruled out.

North Korea's provocation appears to be aimed at the South Korea-Japan summit scheduled to be held in Tokyo on the same day between President Yoon Suk-yeol and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. South Korea and Japan have recently strengthened security cooperation through South Korea-US-Japan exercises, focusing particularly on joint responses to North Korean provocations. For example, four days after the ICBM launch on the 18th of last month, a South Korea-US-Japan missile defense exercise was conducted.

As South Korea-Japan relations, which had cooled during the Moon Jae-in administration, begin to be fully restored with this summit, military cooperation such as the normalization of the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) is expected to increase significantly. Additionally, with the large-scale South Korea-US joint exercise 'Freedom Shield (FS)' underway until the 23rd, North Korea seems to be taking measures to check and respond.

North Hwasong-15 Missile Launch
[Image Source=Yonhap News]

Since North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un announced at the Central Military Commission meeting convened on the 11th that "significant practical measures have been decided," a series of provocations have continued. On the 12th, the day before FS began, two submarine-launched cruise missiles (SLCMs) were fired, and on the 14th, two short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) were launched. The firing of an ICBM in addition to these is interpreted as a threat capable of striking not only the Korean Peninsula but also the entire territory of Japan.

Yang Moo-jin, president of the University of North Korean Studies, said, "This missile launch appears to be a rehearsal for a normal-angle launch while asserting dominance over the Korean Peninsula issue technically," adding, "Choosing the date of the South Korea-Japan summit, which can maximize the practical response effect to the South Korea-US joint exercises, is a dual-purpose move to express opposition to South Korea and the US and to send a warning aimed at the close ties between South Korea and Japan."

Park Won-gon, a professor in the Department of North Korean Studies at Ewha Womans University, analyzed, "Unlike in the past when surveillance, reconnaissance, and strike assets were mobilized during South Korea-US joint exercises causing North Korea to be restrained, North Korea is now expressing confidence in its tactical nuclear capabilities to strike South Korea, Japan, and Guam," adding, "Especially, unlike many provocations last year, the fact that North Korea is actively publicizing this year's provocations to its people indicates internal economic and ideological difficulties."

Meanwhile, the military has begun analyzing the possibility that this missile is a new solid-fuel-based ICBM. A military official stated, "South Korea-US intelligence authorities are comprehensively analyzing recent trends related to North Korea's missile development," and added, "Under a firm combined defense posture, the military will conduct joint exercises intensively and thoroughly, maintaining a readiness posture to overwhelmingly respond to any provocation from North Korea."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.