Today is the 'Day of Decision' for the Opposition Party... 3 Key Points to Watch

Vote Share by Candidate, Runoff Voting Possible
Effect of President Yoon's Attendance
Cheon Ayongin Candidate Joins Leadership Team

The party convention to elect the new leadership of the People Power Party will be held on the afternoon of the 8th at KINTEX in Ilsan, Gyeonggi Province. This convention succeeded in attracting attention as the voter turnout reached an all-time high. The biggest point of interest in this convention is the vote share of each candidate. Since President Yoon Seok-yeol is attending the convention for the first time in seven years, there is curiosity about whether his presence influenced the voting. It is also important to watch whether the candidates supported by former party leader Lee Jun-seok will enter the Supreme Council.

Victory in the first round or a runoff vote?

Ahn Cheol-soo (from left), Hwang Kyo-ahn, Kim Ki-hyun, and Chun Ha-ram, candidates for the party leader of the People Power Party, are holding hands and greeting each other at the 3rd Party Convention Seoul·Incheon·Gyeonggi Joint Speech Meeting held at Goyang Gymnasium in Goyang-si, Gyeonggi-do on the 2nd. Photo by Kim Hyun-min kimhyun81@

If no candidate exceeds the majority in the first round of voting announced that day, the final party leader will be elected through a runoff vote, and it is expected that the power structure within the party will be shaken depending on the vote shares.

Kim Ki-hyun, the candidate leading in various opinion polls, is confident that he will secure more than half of the votes in the first round. If Kim wins the majority in the first round as expected and becomes party leader, it is anticipated that he will secure leadership for stable party management ahead of next year’s general election. Since he has advocated for 'party-government unity,' he could also gain momentum for President Yoon Seok-yeol’s administration.

However, despite the full support of pro-Yoon (친윤, pro-Yoon Seok-yeol) faction lawmakers and the presidential office, if Kim fails to surpass the majority and the election proceeds to a runoff, his position as party leader could become precarious. Political commentator Park Sang-byeong said, "If Kim gets around 60% and another candidate gets about 40%, the party can be managed stably, but if the gap narrows to 55% and 45%, his leadership could be damaged."

Therefore, the silent majority known as the 'Shy Ahn Cheol-soo' vote is crucial. Ahn’s camp has claimed that many incumbent lawmakers support Kim Ki-hyun publicly but back Ahn Cheol-soo privately, calling it 'Daytime Kim Ki-hyun, nighttime Ahn Cheol-soo.' Even if Ahn finishes second and loses, a high vote share would be seen as establishing his position within the party since last year’s merger. This would pave a solid path for his future presidential ambitions. However, if he is overtaken by Cheon Ha-ram, who entered the race late and caused a stir, it could be a fatal blow to his political career.

President’s attendance at the convention after 7 years: Impact on the election?

President Yoon is scheduled to attend the party convention held that afternoon and deliver a congratulatory speech lasting about five minutes. This is the first time since the party retreat in August last year that President Yoon has personally attended an official event of his home party, and it is also the first time since former President Park Geun-hye attended the Saenuri Party convention in 2016 that a sitting president has attended a ruling party convention. It is expected that in his speech, President Yoon will refer to the congratulatory speeches of previous presidents and express the philosophy of the Yoon Seok-yeol administration and its stance on current issues.

Usually, the president’s schedule is not announced in advance due to security concerns, but President Yoon unusually announced his attendance at the convention beforehand and encouraged voting. The People Power Party completed the first round of voting through mobile voting and an automated response system (ARS) over four days from the 4th to the day before. Since there is no on-site voting on the day, the president’s attendance cannot change the voting results.

Inside and outside the party, this was interpreted as an attempt to consolidate votes for pro-Yoon candidate Kim Ki-hyun. Because of this, there is a possibility that unnecessary controversies such as presidential office interference in party affairs may arise again. It is reported that President Yoon will not watch the results of the next party leader vote but will greet ruling party lawmakers and party members and then leave.

Focus on the entry of ’Cheon-A-Yong-In’ candidates into the leadership

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The entry of the ’Cheon-A-Yong-In (Cheon Ha-ram, Heo Eun-ah, Kim Yong-tae, Lee Gi-in)’ candidates, who are supported by former party leader Lee Jun-seok, into the leadership is also a point of interest. If even one of these candidates is elected to the Supreme Council, Lee’s faction could check the pro-Yoon mainstream within the new leadership. Some within the party expect that at least one will enter the Supreme Council.

In particular, Cheon Ha-ram, a candidate for party leader, entered the race late but caused a surge in support in opinion polls. Therefore, if he records a higher-than-expected vote share in the first round, it could not only strengthen Cheon’s political position but also provide a stepping stone for Lee Jun-seok’s political comeback.

This convention recorded a high voter turnout of 55.10%, with 461,313 participants out of 837,236 party members. This is a record-high turnout surpassing the 45.36% turnout of the 2021 convention when Lee was elected. It is analyzed that the intensified competition for party leadership consolidated the support bases of each candidate. The number of People Power Party members surged from about 280,000 at the previous convention to around 840,000, following Lee’s election in June 2021 and President Yoon’s election. The pro-Yoon faction claims that these members support President Yoon and candidate Kim. However, Lee’s camp also believes that the increase in party members through previous leaderships will cause party sentiment to lean toward the Cheon-A-Yong-In candidates.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.