US House Speaker Likely to Meet Taiwan President Next Month... China Expected to Protest

Kevin McCarthy, the third in the U.S. presidential line of succession and Speaker of the House, is reported to meet with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen in California this April. Analysts suggest that the already tense U.S.-China relations, strained by recent issues such as China's surveillance balloon and the possibility of Russian arms support, could further deteriorate due to this meeting.

The Financial Times (FT) reported on the 6th (local time), citing multiple sources, that Speaker McCarthy is scheduled to meet President Tsai in the California region of the United States.

Kevin McCarthy, Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives
[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

President Tsai is expected to transit through California and New York in early April as part of a Central American tour including Guatemala. She will also deliver a speech at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Southern California. It is highly likely that their meeting will take place at this venue. A source confirmed, "President Tsai has accepted the invitation to speak at the Reagan Library." This visit marks President Tsai's first trip to the U.S. mainland since July 2019, when she transited through New York during a tour of four Caribbean countries.

Hardliner McCarthy's meeting with President Tsai is expected to further escalate U.S.-China tensions surrounding Taiwan. Last August, when former Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan?the first sitting Speaker to do so since 1997?China immediately launched military offensives including a blockade exercise around Taiwan. Moreover, U.S.-China relations have sharply cooled this year due to incidents such as China's surveillance balloon. The U.S. also continuously warns that China may supply lethal weapons to Russia, which invaded Ukraine.

Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen [Photo by Reuters]

Initially, Speaker McCarthy intended to visit Taipei directly, but due to concerns from Taiwan that this could significantly provoke China, it was decided to hold the meeting on the U.S. mainland. FT quoted a senior Taiwanese official saying, "President Tsai provided McCarthy’s team with information on the Chinese Communist Party’s movements and the types of threats they pose, judging the situation to be unfavorable." The Taiwanese official expressed concern that "Beijing may adopt policies far less rational than in the past." Chinese media have also reported speculation that if Speaker McCarthy visits Taiwan, the People’s Liberation Army might preemptively surround Taiwan.

The Taiwan issue is considered one of the long-standing powder kegs between the U.S. and China. Historically, the U.S. has maintained a policy of ‘strategic ambiguity,’ not clearly stating whether it would militarily intervene if Taiwan were attacked by China. However, as China’s ambitions regarding Taiwan have become more overt, U.S. President Joe Biden has repeatedly stated that "the United States will defend Taiwan." Currently, U.S. military intelligence agencies assess that China will be prepared to invade Taiwan by 2027, marking the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Liberation Army and the start of President Xi Jinping’s fourth term in office.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.