[China Two Sessions] Official Opening on the 4th... Xi Jinping's Third Term Officially Begins

3rd Term Senior Executive Appointments Confirmed... Second-in-Command is Li Chang
Economic Growth Rate Target Likely in the 5% Range

The annual Two Sessions (National People's Congress and Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference), marking the official launch of President Xi Jinping's third term in office, will formally open on the 4th. The direction of national governance, including key economic policies for this year centered on the confirmed senior officials of the third term, is expected to be announced.

According to state-run media such as Xinhua News Agency, the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), held at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on the 4th, will run for about seven days and conclude on the afternoon of the 11th.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Senior Officials of the Third Term Confirmed... Li Chang as Second-in-Command

This event carries more weight than the annual Two Sessions as it marks the inauguration of President Xi's third term. Earlier, the Chinese Communist Party held the 2nd Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee (the Second Plenum) at the end of last month, drafting the "Leadership Appointment Plan for State Organs" and submitting it to the full session of the National People's Congress. Given the CCP's position above all institutions in China's political system, this can be seen as effectively finalized.

President Xi, who was appointed General Secretary of the Party and Chairman of the Central Military Commission at the Party Congress held last October, is expected to be re-elected as State President and Chairman of the Central Military Commission during the Two Sessions, solidifying his position as the top leader of the Party, government, and military. Li Chang, a member of the Politburo Standing Committee, is expected to succeed Premier Li Keqiang as the second-in-command. The list of vice premiers is likely to include Ding Xueshang, He Lifeng, Liu Guozhong, and Zhang Guoqing. Zhao Leji and Wang Huning, ranked third and fourth in the Party hierarchy respectively, are expected to take the posts of Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress and Chairman of the CPPCC.

A Party and government reshuffle plan passed at the Second Plenum is also expected, likely expanding the Party's control over state affairs. The Hong Kong South China Morning Post (SCMP), citing multiple sources, reported that the department overseeing Hong Kong affairs will be changed from the "State Council Hong Kong and Macao Affairs Office" to the "Central Committee of the Communist Party of China Hong Kong and Macao Work Office" as part of the Second Plenum decisions.

Additionally, there are discussions about establishing a new Party-affiliated "Central Internal Affairs Commission" to oversee the Ministry of Public Security and the Ministry of State Security, which handle public security and intelligence respectively. The State Administration of Radio and Television, which manages TV and radio broadcasts under the State Council, may be integrated into the Party's Central Propaganda Department. There is also speculation about the revival of the Central Financial Work Commission, which would oversee the central bank and the banking and insurance regulatory commissions.

Economic Growth Target Likely in the 5% Range

The economic growth target for this year, to be announced at the opening ceremony of the National People's Congress on the 5th, is likely to be in the 5% range. Regarding this figure, Premier Li Keqiang is expected to announce it in the 2023 government work report. The Chinese state-run Global Times (GT) reported on the 4th that "amid a global economic downturn, policymakers are expected to announce a growth target of 5% or higher to maintain high-quality development," citing views from Chinese economists and institutions.

According to GT, Lian Ping, director of the Zhixin Investment Research Institute, expects the growth target to slightly exceed 5% or be around 5.5%. He stated, "As the impact of the pandemic gradually diminishes, China's consumption is rapidly recovering, and the real estate market is bottoming out and rebounding, there is no doubt that the economic growth rate will exceed 5%."

Another economist, Chen Fengying, told the media in an interview, "Considering the current stable economic rebound factors and base effects, China's GDP growth rate is expected to surge to around 6%. However, the central government may set a reasonable target of about 5% amid external challenges."

Major foreign media also forecast a target in the 5% range, describing it as somewhat conservative. Among major institutions, BNP Paribas and Oxford Economics have the lowest forecasts, projecting 4.5% growth. Louis Ru, chief economist at Oxford Economics, commented, "Given the significant increase in public investment last year, the reopening effect may not be as large as expected."

At this year's Two Sessions, the new Premier and Foreign Minister will have their debut in front of domestic and international journalists. Foreign Minister Qin Gang is scheduled to hold a press conference on the 7th to reveal this year's diplomatic policy amid US-China strategic competition and the Ukraine crisis. Li Chang is expected to answer questions from domestic and foreign reporters on the closing day of the National People's Congress, beginning his duties as the second-in-command.

Meanwhile, this year's Two Sessions will be conducted under a closed-loop system. Attending representatives underwent PCR testing before entering the closed loop and are not allowed to leave the hotels or venues during the event. Domestic and foreign journalists permitted to attend will also stay in quarantine hotels from the day before the opening and closing ceremonies or press conferences and follow the closed-loop protocols.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.