What Is the Endpoint of the Democratic Party's Arrest Consent Rebellion? ... The Key Is the Trend of 'Approval Ratings'

General Election Support Party Poll: Democratic Party and People Power Party Tied at 44%
Possibility of Internal Conflict Worsening Depending on Poll Outcome

The emergence of a large-scale ‘rebellion vote’ during the processing of the arrest consent bill against Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, is escalating concerns about internal party discord. Observers predict that the biggest variable in the Democratic Party’s internal strife will be the trend of ‘public opinion.’

According to political circles on the 2nd, the Democratic Party’s approval rating has recently shown volatile patterns amid the controversy over the arrest consent bill for Lee. Although there is also the ‘convention effect’ from the People Power Party’s March 8 party convention, the increased amplitude of approval ratings is causing a stir in the political world, with the general election just over a year away.

According to a recent public opinion poll released by Research View (conducted nationwide over two days from February 27 to 28, targeting 1,000 adults aged 18 and over, using an ARS automated response survey method), when asked which party’s candidate they would vote for in next year’s general election, the Democratic Party and the People Power Party tied at 44%. In this monthly survey, the Democratic Party had been leading by 8 to 17 percentage points outside the margin of error since July last year, but this time recorded a tie.

Additionally, weekly polls by Gallup and Realmeter also showed fluctuating approval ratings for the Democratic Party. In the third week of February Realmeter poll (commissioned by Media Tribune and conducted from February 13 to 17 nationwide among 2,504 adults aged 18 and over using ARS automated response), there was analysis that the Democratic Party’s approval rating fell behind the People Power Party for the first time in eight months.

So far, the Democratic Party has shown sensitive reactions to changes in public opinion trends. At the party meeting on January 21, when countermeasures against the arrest consent bill for Lee were discussed, analysis materials on recent public opinion trends were provided to lawmakers. The materials included concerns about the party’s declining approval rating, analyses of the convention effect from the People Power Party’s party convention, issues with survey design, and problems of over-sampling, all presented with charts and figures. This is interpreted as a consideration of lawmakers who are extremely sensitive to public opinion trends with just over a year left until next year’s general election.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Despite concerns such as judicial risks related to Lee, the Democratic Party leadership maintained the position that the approval rating is holding up well. On the same day, Kim Nam-guk, Deputy Secretary-General of the Democratic Party, appeared on CBS Radio’s ‘Kim Hyun-jung’s News Show’ and said, “There are calls for Lee to step down as party leader citing judicial risks, but in mid-February, the Democratic Party’s approval rating was overtaken for the first time in eight months. Conversely, it means the Democratic Party had been winning for eight months.” He also rebutted, “Based on the average of the 30th week’s Realmeter polls, the Democratic Party was at 45.5% and the People Power Party at 38.3%, with the Democratic Party leading by about 7 to 8%.”

The key will be the future trend of public opinion polls. The question is what kind of trend the Democratic Party’s approval rating will show, which is caught in a ‘bulletproof frame’ as well as an internal division frame. A Democratic Party official said, “In the past, voices of division erupted when the party’s approval rating declined and concerns about the upcoming election grew.”

This is because internal party division controversies can lead to a decline in approval ratings, and the decline in approval ratings can again catalyze internal party division, creating a vicious cycle. However, Kim Bong-shin, CEO of Metavoice and a public opinion poll expert, forecasted, “Judicial risks related to Lee have been somewhat reflected in the polls, and the convention effect of the People Power Party’s party convention is weakening, so it does not seem that the Democratic Party’s approval rating will plummet; it may remain steady or slightly increase.”

For more detailed information on the public opinion polls, please refer to the website of the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.