[Global Issue+] Increased Possibility of Russian Invasion of Moldova... Could the Ukraine War Spread?

Demand for Withdrawal of Russian Troops Stationed in Eastern Rebel Areas
Steep Inflation Worsens Public Sentiment... Concerns Over Government Overthrow

As the war in Ukraine marks its first anniversary, concerns are growing that the neighboring country Moldova may also become embroiled in the conflict. With Russia expected to invade the pro-Russian eastern border region currently in confrontation with the Moldovan government, severe inflation within Moldova is worsening public sentiment, raising fears that the current pro-Western government could collapse.

Moldova, known as the poorest country in Europe, has a smaller population and weaker military compared to Ukraine, leading to concerns that it would struggle to defend itself if Russia were to launch an invasion. Should Moldova be completely occupied by Russia, Ukraine would face increased pressure on its southwestern front as it confronts Russian forces there.

On the 19th, citizens angry about the recent sharp increase in electricity prices gathered in the capital of Moldova, Chi?in?u, to participate in anti-government protests. Chi?in?u=Reuters·Yonhap News Agency

Russia: "Ukraine Preparing to Invade Moldova"... Moldova: "Russian Psychological Warfare"

On the 23rd (local time), according to the Russian state-run news agency RIA Novosti, the Russian Ministry of Defense issued a statement claiming that Ukraine is amassing troops near the Moldovan border and that these forces could attack the pro-Russian separatist region of Transnistria (Russian name: Pridnestrovie) located in eastern Moldova.

The Russian Ministry of Defense warned, "Ukrainian sabotage agents will carry out an attack on Pridnestrovie disguised as Russian soldiers to create a pretext for invasion," adding, "such actions will be used as an excuse for a (preemptive) Russian military strike on Pridnestrovie territory."

They continued, "Currently, a significant number of Ukrainian troops and military equipment are gathering at the Ukraine-Pridnestrovie border, with artillery units deploying positions and an increase in Ukrainian military drone flights being observed," asserting, "these provocations pose a threat to the Russian peacekeeping forces stationed in Pridnestrovie."

However, the Moldovan government accused Russia of conducting psychological warfare aimed at destabilizing Moldova. In a statement, the Moldovan government said, "Our agencies are cooperating with foreign partners and will promptly inform the public if any threats to the country arise," requesting, "please trust only the reliable information provided by the Moldovan government."

Moldova has strongly rejected accusations that Russia is behind recent anti-government protests triggered by severe inflation. On the 13th, Moldovan President Maia Sandu claimed, "Russia attempted to infiltrate Moldova with nationals from Russia, Belarus, Serbia, and Montenegro to incite anti-government protests," alleging, "these disguised forces planned violent acts, attacks on some government buildings, and even hostage-taking."

Moldova’s Standing Army of 7,000... Difficult to Hold Out Even a Day

The flags of Transnistria and Russia displayed at the administration building in Tiraspol, the capital of the pro-Russian separatist region of Transnistria in the eastern border area of Moldova. Tiraspol = Reuters·Yonhap News

Concerns have also been raised that Moldova would struggle to cope if Russia were to launch an actual attack or attempt to overthrow the government. Moldova is one of Europe’s poorest countries, facing severe economic difficulties and deteriorating public sentiment, compounded by a very weak military.

According to data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Moldova’s per capita gross domestic product (GDP) was about $3,300 in 2020, making it the poorest country in Europe, with over 40% of its population engaged in agriculture. Its population is approximately 3.4 million, less than half the population of the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine currently controlled by Russia.

The standing army is known to number around 7,500, and including reserves, Moldova reportedly has about 70,000 troops. However, due to the severe economic crisis, it is expected that very few troops beyond the standing army would be available for actual combat deployment.

Additionally, about 1,500 Russian troops are stationed in the pro-Russian separatist region of Transnistria in eastern Moldova under the guise of peacekeeping forces. This situation raises concerns that if war breaks out with Russia, Moldova would find it difficult to sustain prolonged resistance like Ukraine and might struggle to hold out even for a day with its standing army alone.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.