Controversy Over 'Leak' of Cutoff Approval Ratings... Why Is It a Problem?

[Asia Economy Reporter Lee Ji-eun] The People Power Party announced the results of the preliminary primary (cutoff) opinion poll conducted on the 8th and 9th. Based on these results, the cutoff for 4 party leader candidates, 8 supreme council member candidates, and 4 youth supreme council member candidates will be finalized. However, controversy arose when an internet news outlet reported that candidate Kim Gi-hyeon was leading in the preliminary primary interim tally. Candidate Ahn Cheol-soo's camp has demanded disciplinary action.

Candidate Ahn's camp strongly criticized the report on the 9th by an internet news outlet that cited an anonymous party official regarding the interim tally of the opinion poll, calling it "a serious criminal act disguised as a news report written by an anonymous journalist." Reporting interim results before the poll is completed could influence future polling trends. The internet news outlet quoted a party official, reporting that candidate Kim was in first place but did not exceed the majority in the interim poll results.

On the 7th, at a broadcasting studio in Gangseo-gu, Seoul, the leadership of the People Power Party and the party representative candidates are taking a commemorative photo at the 3rd party convention candidate vision presentation. From the left: Jo Kyung-tae, Yoon Sang-hyun, Hwang Kyo-ahn, Ahn Cheol-soo, Cheon Ha-ram, Kim Ki-hyun, party representative candidates; Jeong Jin-seok, Emergency Response Committee Chairman; Yoo Heung-soo, Election Management Committee Chairman of the party convention; Joo Ho-young, floor leader; Kim Seok-ki, Secretary General. Photo by National Assembly Press Photographers Group

From party leader to presidential candidate, controversies over cutoff poll results arise every time there is a party convention. In the 2021 presidential primary, then-presidential candidate President Yoon Seok-youl's camp and Daegu Mayor Hong Joon-pyo's camp both claimed to be in first place despite the first cutoff poll results not being released. In politics, 'jirashi' (rumor sheets) circulated showing different vote percentages for candidates ranked first and second. During the same year's Democratic Party presidential preliminary, only the cutoff list was released, leading to the spread of unidentified rumor sheets.

The persistent noise is because preliminary primary opinion polls serve both to narrow down candidates to protect voters' choice rights and as a barometer for the main primary trends. Therefore, generally, only the cutoff list is announced, not the vote percentages. This is to guard against the 'bandwagon effect' favoring the candidate who ranks first in the preliminary primary. While the leading candidate's camp may claim a 'trend' advantage, opposing candidates must start the main primary under unfair circumstances.

Moreover, if the preliminary primary opinion poll shows an overwhelmingly large vote gap, it could harm the excitement of the election. If voters feel the result is predetermined, more party members might abstain from voting, causing the party convention, a major event, to fail to attract attention and end up as an insular gathering. From the party leadership's perspective, leaks of opinion poll results are something to be guarded against.

However, there is also analysis that such leaks of opinion poll figures, while possibly attempted strategically, are unlikely to reflect the actual results. Kim Jae-won, former supreme council member of the People Power Party running for supreme council member, said on YTN's 'News King with Park Ji-hoon' on the 10th, "Even if everything is sorted out in the opinion polls, companies prepare sealed reports and submit them to the party, which are then opened and tallied on-site around 10 a.m. today. There is no system to view them beforehand." He added, "If candidate Kim's camp leaked such information to the media to create a favorable situation, it could be a highly sophisticated strategy, but I do not believe the actual opinion poll results were leaked."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.