Chinese Think Tank "North Korea Likely to Proceed with 7th Nuclear Test This Year"

[Asia Economy Reporter Eunju Lee] There is an analysis suggesting that North Korea may proceed with its 7th nuclear test this year.

On the 20th, according to the Chinese media outlet Pengpai, Tsinghua University's Institute of Strategy and Security compiled the views of 41 individuals from academia, government, business, and media in the "2023 China External Security Risk Outlook Report," which forecasted that "North Korea may proceed with its 7th nuclear test this year."

The report stated, "Accordingly, the domestic and international power struggle surrounding the North Korean nuclear issue is expected to intensify," and analyzed that "the United States will take advantage of this situation to deploy missile defense (MD) systems affecting China in Japan and South Korea, and South Korea will break the '3-No-1-Yes' promise regarding THAAD, thereby straining South Korea-China relations."

The '3-No-1-Yes' refers to South Korea's commitment not to deploy additional THAAD systems and to ensure that the deployed THAAD does not face China. The South Korean government maintains that this was a government-level promise in 2017 but not a formal agreement.

The report continued, "South Korea, the United States, and Japan will conduct large-scale joint military exercises and strengthen exchanges with military alliances such as NATO, which could deepen the bloc alignment in Northeast Asia." It added, "To resolve the issue, the involved countries need to resume dialogue to reduce miscalculations and mitigate risks."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.