[Fact Check] "People Power Party's Approval Rating Has Never Lagged Behind Democratic Party" Lee Jun-seok's Statement Is True Since Local Election Campaign Headquarters Formation

Gallup and Realmeter Regular Survey Approval Rating Analysis

[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] Former People Power Party (PPP) leader Lee Jun-seok recently stated that during the period leading up to the local elections, the PPP's approval ratings never fell behind those of the Democratic Party. Is Lee's statement based on objective facts? An analysis by Asia Economy, based on regular opinion polls, confirmed that Lee's statement is indeed factual according to the polling trends.

On the 22nd, Lee met with reporters after delivering a guest lecture for the Department of Political Science and Diplomacy's "Modern Korean Political Thought" class at Korea University Anam Campus in Seoul, where he remarked, "When I was party leader, our approval ratings never lagged behind the Democratic Party's. What happened then?"

[Image source=Yonhap News]

In response to reporters' questions about President Yoon Suk-yeol's approval rating recently returning to 40%, Lee said, "Until I led the local elections, it was natural for President Yoon's approval rating to be in the high 40% range, but it seems various things happened in the meantime."

Lee emphasized that during the local elections held while he was in office, the ruling party PPP and President Yoon's approval ratings were performing well. He also referred to the subsequent period of turmoil, including his stepping down from party leadership due to disciplinary action by the Ethics Committee, during which both the party and the president's approval ratings declined.

Provided by Gallup

Before verifying the statement, Asia Economy confirmed with Lee's side that his comment about the party's approval ratings referred specifically to the period after the local election campaign began, not his entire tenure as party leader.

So, did the PPP's approval ratings indeed surpass those of the Democratic Party during the local election campaign as Lee claimed?

To verify this, we examined the results of regular opinion polls conducted by Gallup Korea and Realmeter. The period analyzed was from May 6, when the PPP's local election campaign committee was launched, until July 8, when Lee's party leadership duties were suspended due to a membership suspension.

Looking at Gallup's first week of May poll (conducted May 3?4), just before the campaign committee launch, the PPP's approval rating was 40%, trailing the Democratic Party's 41% by 1 percentage point. However, after the campaign committee was launched, the PPP's approval rating rose to 45%, while the Democratic Party's dropped to 31%. Except for periods without polling ahead of the local elections, the PPP consistently maintained approval ratings above 40%, recording 41% in the first week of July (July 5?7 poll). Meanwhile, during the same period, the Democratic Party's approval ratings hovered in the high 20% to low 30% range. Subsequently, both parties' approval ratings remained in the low to mid-30% range. Although the Democratic Party led more often overall, in the most recent three weeks of polling (first to third week of December), the PPP held higher ratings.

The same trend was confirmed in Realmeter's polls. In the first week of May (May 2?6 poll), when the campaign committee was launched, the PPP recorded a 49.8% approval rating, surpassing the Democratic Party's 37.7% by a margin outside the margin of error. Except for the period immediately before the local elections, the PPP maintained a lead despite some fluctuations. However, in the first week of July (July 4?8 poll), when Lee's duties were suspended, the Democratic Party's approval rating was 41.8%, overtaking the PPP's 40.9%, reversing the top two positions. Since then, the Democratic Party's approval ratings have continued to lead.

Based on the Gallup and Realmeter polling results, Lee's explanation that the PPP's approval ratings surpassed those of the Democratic Party after leading the local elections can be regarded as 'fact.'

For detailed information on the polling methodology and results, please refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.