Putin Visits Belarus in Person After 3 Years... Is He Forcing War Participation?

Consecutive Defeats, Direct Efforts to Find a Breakthrough
Some Ukrainian Troops Tied Down if Belarus Joins the War

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that he will visit Belarus in person for the first time in over three years, drawing attention to the background of this visit. Recently, as President Putin has consecutively canceled annual events such as the year-end press conference and secluded himself, sparking rumors about his health, this move is interpreted as an attempt to demonstrate his vitality. If President Putin manages to lead Belarus into participating in the war, the Ukraine conflict is expected to take on a new dimension.

According to Russia's TASS news agency on the 18th (local time), President Putin is scheduled to visit Belarus on the 19th to hold a summit with President Aleksandr Lukashenko. This will be Putin's first direct visit to Belarus since June 2019. The visit is seen as a move to strongly demand Belarus's participation in the Ukraine war once again.

Belarus has consistently opposed Russia's demands for participation. At a press conference the day before, Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko drew a line by saying, "The talks with President Putin will mainly focus on economic discussions," but added, "However, we will not avoid any discussions regarding the surrounding military-political situation."

Inside and outside Russia, it is expected that even if Belarus does not directly dispatch troops to Ukraine, merely expressing willingness to participate could serve as an opportunity to tie down a significant portion of Ukraine's defensive forces on the northern front. Accordingly, Putin's direct visit to Belarus is also interpreted as a declaration of his determination to personally find a breakthrough in the unfavorable war situation.

Earlier, President Putin visited the Russian military command headquarters and held a meeting with military commanders in person. The meeting included about ten military commanders such as Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu, Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, and Commander-in-Chief of the Ukraine war Sergey Surovikin. Considering Putin's recent distancing from the military command following successive defeats on the Ukraine front, this is regarded as highly unusual. The New York Times (NYT) pointed out, "President Putin has so far kept a distance from the war situation to avoid associating himself with Russia's poor performance," and "He has also been reluctant to visit the command or the front lines."

Until the visit to the command headquarters, President Putin had canceled a series of annual events and remained out of the public eye for over a week. Notably, he canceled the year-end press conference, which he had never missed since 2012, and also canceled the ice hockey event he attended every year at year-end to demonstrate his vitality. Some speculated that Putin might be planning an escape operation to flee to South American regions such as Venezuela in case of a regime collapse.

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), citing political analysts, analyzed, "By involving Belarus in the war, President Putin aims to demonstrate the solidity of his position within Russia and the former Eastern Bloc countries and to show the strong ties between the two nations."

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