"Over 1 Million Could Die from COVID-19 in China, Hong Kong University Research Team Predicts"

Professor Gabriel Leung's Team Observes Using Modeling Techniques
684 Deaths Possible per 1 Million Population
"Orderly Reopening Needed Until January"

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Beijing=Correspondent Kim Hyunjung] As China significantly relaxes its quarantine policies and effectively abandons zero-COVID, a study has emerged suggesting that around one million people could die from COVID-19 in China.

On the 15th (local time), Bloomberg News reported on a medical report from the University of Hong Kong stating that if there is no large-scale vaccination campaign or separate measures to minimize the virus's impact within China, 684 deaths per one million population could occur. The report was co-authored by Professor Gabriel Leung, former dean of the university's medical faculty. Earlier this year, Leung's team accurately predicted the scale of the deadly outbreak and death toll in Hong Kong.

Based on the report and China's population (1.41 billion), the news agency estimated the death toll could reach approximately 964,400. According to major foreign media, Leung's team was one of the expert groups that visited Beijing in early last month to advise Chinese authorities on lifting nationwide COVID-19 restrictions.

The researchers studied recent outbreak situations and scenarios in China, including the effective abolition of zero-COVID measures such as the 10 quarantine policies announced on the 7th. The team explained, "These results suggest that China will not be able to cope with the surge in COVID-19 cases that may arise from reopening between December this year and January next year."

They emphasized the need for an "orderly reopening" to save more lives. The researchers predicted that if China increases vaccination rates and prioritizes improving access to antiviral drugs while preparing for reopening by January, the cumulative death toll could be reduced by 26%.

Earlier, China mostly abolished its "zero-tolerance" policy toward COVID-19 confirmed cases and close contacts after nearly a week. The news agency reported that hospitals in major cities were overwhelmed instantly, and experts were thrown into confusion.

Former Dean Leung is a prominent figure in Hong Kong's medical community, known for personally contacting and persuading former Chief Executive Carrie Lam to help reorganize Hong Kong's quarantine system. Notably, in early February when Omicron was spreading in Hong Kong, Leung projected through computer modeling that up to 7,000 deaths could occur by mid-June. The actual death toll exceeded his estimate, reaching 9,000.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.