Russia Rejects "No Christmas Truce"... Possibility of Belarus Joining the Conflict

Ukraine and the West Urge Negotiations, "No Proposal Received"
Belarus Concentrates Troops Near Ukraine Border

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] The Russian government has dismissed the possibility of a 'Christmas ceasefire' urged by Ukraine and Western countries, stating that it has not received any proposals regarding it. Instead, it is reportedly moving some troops to the Belarus area adjacent to northern Ukraine and urging Belarus to join the conflict.

Since the outbreak of the war, Belarus, which has allowed Russian troops to enter and operate but has not directly participated in the war, recently concentrated its forces in the southern region bordering Ukraine. Some Russian troops are also believed to have moved additionally to Belarus, aiming to resume the invasion of northern Ukraine.

"Christmas Ceasefire Not on the Agenda"

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

According to TASS news agency on the 14th (local time), Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesperson, said at a regular briefing that "no one has received such a proposal" regarding the Christmas ceasefire and that "it is not on the agenda." Earlier, at a briefing the previous day, he also dismissed the possibility of Russia beginning a withdrawal within the year, saying "That's nonsense. There will be no withdrawal," and emphasized, "Ukraine must recognize the new reality of Russia's annexation of four regions, and no progress is possible without considering this reality."

Earlier, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, during a G7 virtual summit on the 12th, urged Russia by saying, "Russian troops must begin withdrawing at Christmas. A holiday celebrated by billions is approaching. Ordinary people think of peace, not invasion, during this time," and stated, "If Russia withdraws its troops from Ukraine, we will guarantee a ceasefire." G7 leaders also called on Russia to withdraw and engage in peace talks.

Russia and Ukraine continue behind-the-scenes negotiations for a ceasefire, but their conditions remain at an impasse. Russia insists that the four forcibly annexed regions?Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson?be recognized as Russian territory. Meanwhile, Ukraine demands the return of these four regions along with the return of Crimea, which Russia forcibly annexed in 2014.

Belarus Concentrates Combat Troops at Border... Will Participation Intensify?

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

As Belarus, an ally of Russia, concentrates troops along the Ukrainian border, the possibility of Russia re-invading northern Ukraine has also been raised.

According to The New York Times (NYT), on the 13th (local time), the Belarus Ministry of Defense announced, "Under the direction of President Alexander Lukashenko, the National Security Council has initiated an inspection of combat readiness." A significant number of Belarusian troops are moving to the border area with Ukraine and are scheduled to conduct military exercises with Russian forces.

Russia has recently dispatched a special unit of about 9,000 troops to Belarus to conduct military exercises, raising the possibility that, seeking a breakthrough on the stalemated Ukrainian front, Russia might attack the northern region in coordination with Belarusian forces.

However, even if Russia continues to urge Belarus to participate, the prevailing analysis is that Belarus will find it difficult to directly engage in the conflict. The U.S. Institute for the Study of War (ISW) pointed out, "The likelihood of Belarus invading Ukraine in the near future is extremely low," adding, "Russia's intention is to give the impression that Belarus might directly participate in the war to tie down Ukrainian forces at the northern border, and Belarus will only provide support fire to this extent."

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has reportedly opposed participation citing internal circumstances, despite repeated calls for involvement from Russian President Vladimir Putin. Although the Belarusian military is estimated to have about 48,000 troops, it has not participated in any war for over 30 years since the end of the Cold War, and the actual available forces are only about 20,000, making direct participation difficult.

Some fear that the Putin regime might overthrow the Lukashenko government, which opposes participation, and establish a more pro-Russian regime. On the 26th of last month, Belarusian Foreign Minister Vladimir Makei, known as an anti-Russian politician, suddenly died, raising suspicions of poisoning by Russian agents.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.