The Unfinished 'Semiconductor Cold Spell'... DRAM and NAND Prices Stable, Signs of Rebound Faint

DramExchange Announces November Fixed Transaction Prices

24Gb DDR5 DRAM and 96GB, 48GB DRAM modules, the first samples shipped in the industry by SK Hynix. (Photo by SK Hynix)

[Asia Economy Reporter Moon Chaeseok] Amid the 'semiconductor cold wave,' the fixed transaction prices of memory semiconductors DRAM and NAND flash remained at the same level as last month. Although the downward trend has eased into a stable trend, semiconductor suppliers and set companies such as PC manufacturers did not engage in price negotiations due to factors such as reduced consumption and increased inventory. The consensus is that there are no signs of a fundamental increase in semiconductor unit prices.

According to market research firm DRAMeXchange on the 30th, the average fixed transaction price of general-purpose PC DRAM products (DDR4 1Gx8) was $2.21, the same as a month ago. Fixed transaction prices refer to contract transaction amounts between semiconductor manufacturers and IT companies and are considered a key indicator of the semiconductor market situation.

DRAM prices have been on a continuous decline. After peaking at $4.10 in July last year, prices fell to $3.71 (-9.51%) in October last year, $3.41 (-8.09%) in January this year, $3.35 (-1.76%) in May, $2.88 (-14.03%) in July, $2.85 (-1.04%) in August, and $2.21 (-22.46%) in October, showing a mix of stable and declining trends. The drop was also significant. Compared to $3.71 a year ago, it plunged 40.4%.

Major global market research firms analyzed that the DRAM price decline was due to decreased demand and increased semiconductor inventory. In particular, there are even forecasts that price rebounds will be difficult in the first quarter of next year. Taiwan's market research firm TrendForce predicted that the average selling price (ASP) of DRAM will drop by more than 10% in the first quarter of next year.

Another major memory semiconductor, NAND flash, also showed stable transaction prices compared to the previous month. The fixed transaction price of general-purpose products for memory cards and USB (128Gb 16Gx8 MLC) recorded an average of $4.14 this month, the same as last month. NAND products showed a continuous decline for five consecutive months from June to October.

The overall semiconductor market 'cold wave' is expected to continue for the time being. Market research firm Gartner forecasted that the global semiconductor market revenue next year will be $596 billion, down 3.6% from the same period last year, with the memory market potentially shrinking by 16.2%. Next year, DRAM market revenue is expected to be $74.2 billion, down 18% from this year, and NAND market revenue is expected to decrease by 13.7% to $59.4 billion.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.