The World Feared World War III... "Missile That Fell in Poland Originated from Ukraine"

Temporary Conclusion on Ukraine Airstrike... Global Tension Briefly Rises
Both Countries Use Former Soviet S-300 Missiles
NATO-Russia Direct Confrontation Risk Grows..."Risk of Misjudgment Increases"

On the 15th (local time), two missiles, presumed to have been launched from Russia, fell and exploded in Przewod?w, an area on the eastern border of Poland with Ukraine. The Polish government announced that two residents died due to the missile explosions that day. This marks the first time since the outbreak of the Ukraine war that missiles have fallen on a NATO member country, prompting NATO to announce an emergency meeting on the 16th. Przewod?w (Poland) = Reuters·Yonhap News

[Asia Economy Reporter Lee Hyun-woo] The missile explosion incident that occurred in eastern Poland near the Ukraine border is likely to have been caused by a misfire from the Ukrainian air defense system, according to analysis by U.S. authorities, easing fears of a full-scale war between NATO and Russia. The area is very close to the Ukrainian border, making it prone to accidental strikes, and both Ukraine and Russia use the same type of missile, making it difficult to distinguish, which is seen as the cause of this misunderstanding.

However, as similar accidental strikes are expected to continue near the Polish border, concerns are rising about the risk of escalation due to misjudgments by the relevant authorities.

"U.S. Officials: Ukrainian Air Defense Missile Misfired While Intercepting Russian Missile"

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

On the 15th (local time), the Associated Press cited a senior U.S. official saying, "In the initial investigation phase, the missile that struck eastern Poland was identified not as one fired by Russian forces but as a Ukrainian air defense missile launched in response to a Russian missile." Earlier, two missiles fell and exploded in Przewod?w, near the eastern Polish border, raising suspicions that a Russian missile attack had begun, which sparked fears of escalation.

Especially as concerns about a full-scale war between NATO and Russia grew, major Asian stock markets experienced sharp declines that morning. After reports identified the missile as a Ukrainian air defense missile and investor sentiment stabilized, major Asian stock markets returned to a steady range.

Earlier, U.S. President Joe Biden expressed a cautious stance, saying it was unlikely that Russia had launched the missile, which sparked controversy over who was behind the launch. President Biden stated, "It is premature to comment until the investigation is fully complete, but based on the missile’s trajectory, it does not appear likely that it was launched from Russia."

The Polish government, the affected party, also stated that the missile itself appeared to be of Russian origin but that it was unclear exactly who fired it. Polish President Andrzej Duda said in a speech at the National Security Bureau in Warsaw, Poland, "It is still uncertain who fired the missile that caused the explosion in the village of Przewod?w," adding, "The missile itself is most likely produced in Russia." He continued, "We are conducting the investigation in a very calm manner," and emphasized, "Experts will be dispatched to the site as part of a joint investigation with the United States."

Former Soviet Missiles Used by Both Ukraine and Russia... Difficult to Distinguish

On the 15th (local time), debris of a missile that fell and exploded in Przewod?w, an area near the eastern border of Poland and Ukraine [Image source=Twitter]

The main reason this missile caused controversy is that it is believed to have been a former Soviet S-300 missile used by both Russia and Ukraine. It was very difficult to determine whether it was a missile launched by Russia for an airstrike or a Ukrainian air defense missile launched to intercept.

On the 15th (local time), Justin Bronk, a researcher at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a British think tank, told The Telegraph, "Based on the shape of the fragments, the missile that fell in Przewod?w, eastern Poland, appears to match the S-300 surface-to-air missile," adding, "This missile is used by both Ukraine and Russia. It is possible that Russia launched it for an airstrike on Ukraine, or that Ukraine launched it to intercept a Russian missile but it accidentally deviated from its path and fell into Polish territory."

Rob Lee, a senior researcher at the U.S. Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI), also said, "Poland’s earlier statement that the missile was Russian-made means it is unclear whether the missile was actually fired by Russia," adding, "The S-300 missile was produced during the Soviet era and is currently classified as Russian-made."

The S-300 was developed and deployed by the Soviet Union in the 1980s and is used by both Russia and Ukraine as an airstrike or air defense weapon system. Accordingly, early reports of the explosion incident indicated that it was difficult to determine where the missile was launched from.

"Risk of Full-Scale NATO-Russia Conflict Due to Misjudgment Remains"

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

Although the missile explosion incident is tentatively concluded to be a misfire by Ukraine and is expected to remain a misunderstanding, concerns are rising that if similar misfire incidents continue, fears of a full-scale war between NATO and Russia will intensify.

The British Guardian pointed out, "Although this case has been settled for now, it shows that the risk of a full-scale conflict between NATO and Russia due to misjudgment always exists," and "It also highlighted that Ukraine strongly desires NATO’s war intervention." It warned, "Compared to the Cold War era between the U.S. and the Soviet Union, the current risk of full-scale war due to misjudgment is higher."

Earlier, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy urged in a national address, "The missile attack on Poland is an attack by Russia on NATO," and called for NATO’s full response, saying, "We must act." If major NATO countries had responded aggressively, Article 5 of the NATO Charter, which calls for collective defense and intervention when a member country is attacked, might have been triggered.

Meanwhile, NATO has decided to hold an emergency meeting on the 16th to investigate the facts of this incident and review the possibility of a full-scale war in the future. Earlier, Poland invoked Article 4 of the NATO Charter, which calls for security consultations and information sharing among all member countries in case of emergency, and plans to discuss responses related to this missile explosion incident.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.