"New Phase in Israel-Palestine Conflict"....Israel's New Government Faces International 'Isolation Warning' [Global Focus]

Netanyahu Returns as Prime Minister After One and a Half Years... Diplomatic Test Ahead

Benjamin Netanyahu. (Photo by Reuters)

[Asia Economy Reporter Jo Yujin] With former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who allied with far-right forces, winning the Israeli general election, there are forecasts of changes in the international situation, including the Middle East. Although the deteriorating security situation due to the escalation of the Israel-Palestine conflict (hereafter referred to as the I-P conflict) has brought the conservative right-wing Netanyahu back, there are also concerns about potential clashes with far-right politician Itamar Ben-Gvir, who has emerged as the real driving force behind this election victory. As an ultra-hardline conservative right-winger surpassing Netanyahu, if he holds substantial power in the new government, there are even worries that Israel could become isolated in the international community.

Netanyahu’s bloc, which made a dramatic comeback through the Israeli general election, secured 64 seats out of the total 120, confirming its victory. According to the official vote count, Netanyahu’s Likud party won 32 seats, not significantly widening the gap with Yesh Atid’s 24 seats. Meanwhile, the staunchly Zionist party led by Ben-Gvir won 14 seats, leaping to become the third-largest party in the Knesset. This is the highest number of seats ever held by a radical right-wing faction in Israeli history. For this reason, the election is being evaluated as a victory for ‘Ben-Gvir’ rather than ‘Netanyahu.’

◇Return to a Powder Keg... "A New Phase in the I-P Conflict"= On the 6th (local time), according to The Times of Israel, Netanyahu held the first informal meeting to discuss the formation of the next government with party leaders at a hotel in Jerusalem. Foreign media reported that since cooperation with Ben-Gvir and his political partner Bezalel Smotrich is inevitable to clear Netanyahu of corruption charges that hindered his 15-year long tenure, they are expected to secure key positions in the new cabinet.

Ben-Gvir is an ultra-hardline right-wing leader who has advocated for the expansion of settlements in Palestinian territories, which the international community considers illegal, and unilateral territorial annexation. He also has a history of being convicted in 2007 for supporting terrorist organizations and inciting racial discrimination. The Guardian stated, "Ben-Gvir has led efforts to support violence by Israeli settlers in the West Bank and Gaza Strip," and "he is expected to ultimately attempt full annexation of the West Bank."

Itamar Ben-Gvir. (Photo by AFP)

Tensions in the region are already escalating. On the 5th, the Palestinian Ministry of Health reported that the Israeli military shot and killed a Palestinian teenager in the occupied West Bank. 18-year-old Musab Nofal was shot in the chest and transported to a hospital but died, and another Palestinian was seriously injured by gunfire. ABC News reported that this incident is closely related to the political change of Netanyahu returning to power in coalition with Ben-Gvir.

In the Gaza Strip, governed by the Iran-backed armed group Hamas, rockets were launched on the 3rd as a form of resistance against the Israeli election results. This was the first armed clash between Gaza militants and the Israeli military since August.

The Palestinian Authority (PA) commented on the Israeli election results as "the rise of far-right politicians advocating settlement expansion in occupied territories," adding, "We will observe how the new government forms and what policies it pursues before deciding on a response."

PA Civil Affairs Minister Hussein Al-Sheikh warned, "If there is no partner willing to resume peace talks with the Palestinian authorities, the I-P conflict will enter a new phase." The Associated Press expressed concerns that the far-right shift in Israeli politics will push the already distant I-P peace negotiations even further away and deepen the challenges faced by the Palestinian Authority.

Ebrahim Raisi, President of Iran. (AP Yonhap News)

◇Storm with ‘Nuclear-Armed’ Iran... "Rocket Launch is Worrisome"= Relations with hostile Iran are also expected to be engulfed in turmoil over nuclear armament. On the 5th, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) successfully test-fired the ‘Qaem-100,’ a three-stage solid-fuel satellite launch rocket.

Israel’s public broadcaster Kan described the IRGC test launch as "a clear threat to Israel," stating, "The Russia-Ukraine war has become a battlefield between Israel and Iran." Local Channel 12 also expressed concern, saying, "Iran’s launch of a rocket carrying a satellite signals a demonstration of ballistic missile capabilities."

Given Netanyahu’s previous fierce confrontation with then Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad during his 2012 premiership, there are concerns about a strong confrontation with current President Ebrahim Raisi. Raisi, known for his strong anti-American stance, has reportedly made hardline remarks such as "Israel must be wiped off the face of the earth."

Neighboring Arab countries also represent another axis of conflict. Ben-Gvir, who labels all Arabs as terrorists, has argued that Israeli police should have greater legal authority to shoot ‘terrorist’ Arabs. The British weekly The Economist stated, "Such moves will instill fear in Arab societies," and warned that "this could isolate Israel in the international community, including the Biden administration in the United States."

◇Relations with the U.S. Also on the Test... Biden’s Congratulatory Call Four Days Later= If Ben-Gvir expands his influence in the new government, the alliance with the United States is also expected to be tested. Israel has been a long-standing ally of the U.S., receiving military aid annually since its founding. However, after the Russia-Ukraine war, Israel ignored U.S. requests for military aid to Ukraine, citing military interests with Russia, causing a rift in U.S.-Israel relations.

President Biden made a congratulatory phone call to Netanyahu only on the 7th, four days after the election results were confirmed. This contrasts with the 2020 U.S. presidential election when the call was made 11 hours after the victory announcement.

Earlier, Israeli local broadcaster Channel 12 noted that leaders of major countries such as Ukraine, Hungary, India, and Greece congratulated Netanyahu even before the official election results were announced, but President Biden had not yet done so. The Jerusalem Post reported that "the delay in Biden’s congratulatory call does not seem like a good sign," and some interpret this as a crisis in U.S.-Israel relations.

The Guardian reported, "In the context of a new Cold War, the Israeli election results could become a so-called ‘hot-button’ issue." The key will be the future actions of Ben-Gvir, who most contradicts the U.S. Middle East core strategy of the ‘two-state solution’ (recognizing Palestine and Israel as independent states).

Furthermore, The Guardian pointed out that if Ben-Gvir holds a key cabinet position, he is likely to be designated as a ‘persona non grata’ by the U.S. Axios, citing anonymous senior government sources, also stated, "The U.S. government will not cooperate with Ben-Gvir and other far-right figures," signaling a boycott.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.